Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs as of August 23, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rain across central Mexico, limiting solar heating and suppressing the daily maximum in Mexico City to the 18–22°C range. This pattern stems from a stalled weather system enhancing moisture transport and reducing insolation, with ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential ahead of August 24. Trader consensus around 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (32.0%) reflects this model agreement and historical analogs of rainy late-August days, while lower probabilities for 22°C or above account for possible brief clearing. Updated official observations from Mexico’s meteorological service and the next model cycles will provide key resolution signals before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
20°C 35%
21°C 32%
19°C 14%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
14%
20°C
35%
21°C
32%
22°C
14%
23°C
4%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 35%
21°C 32%
19°C 14%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$135 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$41 Vol.
2%
18°C
$174 Vol.
5%
19°C
$78 Vol.
14%
20°C
$385 Vol.
35%
21°C
$283 Vol.
32%
22°C
$213 Vol.
14%
23°C
$117 Vol.
4%
24°C
$82 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$70 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs as of August 23, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rain across central Mexico, limiting solar heating and suppressing the daily maximum in Mexico City to the 18–22°C range. This pattern stems from a stalled weather system enhancing moisture transport and reducing insolation, with ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential ahead of August 24. Trader consensus around 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (32.0%) reflects this model agreement and historical analogs of rainy late-August days, while lower probabilities for 22°C or above account for possible brief clearing. Updated official observations from Mexico’s meteorological service and the next model cycles will provide key resolution signals before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,583End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs as of August 23, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rain across central Mexico, limiting solar heating and suppressing the daily maximum in Mexico City to the 18–22°C range. This pattern stems from a stalled weather system enhancing moisture transport and reducing insolation, with ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential ahead of August 24. Trader consensus around 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (32.0%) reflects this model agreement and historical analogs of rainy late-August days, while lower probabilities for 22°C or above account for possible brief clearing. Updated official observations from Mexico’s meteorological service and the next model cycles will provide key resolution signals before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,583End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs as of August 23, indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rain across central Mexico, limiting solar heating and suppressing the daily maximum in Mexico City to the 18–22°C range. This pattern stems from a stalled weather system enhancing moisture transport and reducing insolation, with ensemble guidance showing limited warming potential ahead of August 24. Trader consensus around 20°C (36.5%) and 21°C (32.0%) reflects this model agreement and historical analogs of rainy late-August days, while lower probabilities for 22°C or above account for possible brief clearing. Updated official observations from Mexico’s meteorological service and the next model cycles will provide key resolution signals before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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