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icon for Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?

Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?

icon for Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?

Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

11°C 37%

7°C or below 34%

10°C 22%

12°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

11°C 37%

7°C or below 34%

10°C 22%

12°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$5 Vol.

34%

8°C

$6 Vol.

10%

9°C

$0 Vol.

16%

10°C

$0 Vol.

22%

11°C

$5 Vol.

30%

12°C

$0 Vol.

20%

13°C

$0 Vol.

15%

14°C

$5 Vol.

10%

15°C

$104 Vol.

8%

16°C

$35 Vol.

12%

17°C or higher

$47 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to clear skies and moderate southerly winds maintaining overnight lows near 10–12°C in Cape Town on August 24, with the primary catalyst being a stable high-pressure ridge limiting cold-air advection from the interior. Radiative cooling under minimal cloud cover will drive the daily minimum around dawn, modulated by boundary-layer mixing from 10–15 km/h winds and dew points near 9–11°C that curb further drops. Historical August climatology shows typical minima of 8–11°C at the airport, yet current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from local urban heat effects versus coastal influences, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered between sub-8°C and 11–12°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will refine thresholds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$207
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to clear skies and moderate southerly winds maintaining overnight lows near 10–12°C in Cape Town on August 24, with the primary catalyst being a stable high-pressure ridge limiting cold-air advection from the interior. Radiative cooling under minimal cloud cover will drive the daily minimum around dawn, modulated by boundary-layer mixing from 10–15 km/h winds and dew points near 9–11°C that curb further drops. Historical August climatology shows typical minima of 8–11°C at the airport, yet current ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from local urban heat effects versus coastal influences, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered between sub-8°C and 11–12°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will refine thresholds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$207
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7°C or below" at 34%, followed by "11°C" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?" is "7°C or below" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11°C" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.