Market-implied odds strongly favor 25°C as Beijing’s lowest temperature on August 23 because consensus forecasts from multiple models project overnight lows near that threshold under persistent warmth, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover. Dew points around 24–26°C have limited radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated above the historical August average of roughly 21°C. Recent observations and model runs through the day have shown little deviation, reinforcing trader consensus backed by real capital at risk. Only a sharp, unexpected drop in cloud cover or revised observational data from official Beijing stations could realistically shift the outcome toward cooler thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 23?
25°C 99%
23°C 3%
24°C 2%
22°C 1.8%
$3,522 Vol.
$3,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99%
23°C 3%
24°C 2%
22°C 1.8%
$3,522 Vol.
$3,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
19°C or below
$184 Vol.
1%
20°C
$689 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$277 Vol.
1%
22°C
$327 Vol.
2%
23°C
$340 Vol.
3%
24°C
$265 Vol.
2%
25°C
$370 Vol.
99%
26°C
$222 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$147 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds strongly favor 25°C as Beijing’s lowest temperature on August 23 because consensus forecasts from multiple models project overnight lows near that threshold under persistent warmth, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover. Dew points around 24–26°C have limited radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated above the historical August average of roughly 21°C. Recent observations and model runs through the day have shown little deviation, reinforcing trader consensus backed by real capital at risk. Only a sharp, unexpected drop in cloud cover or revised observational data from official Beijing stations could realistically shift the outcome toward cooler thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,522End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds strongly favor 25°C as Beijing’s lowest temperature on August 23 because consensus forecasts from multiple models project overnight lows near that threshold under persistent warmth, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover. Dew points around 24–26°C have limited radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated above the historical August average of roughly 21°C. Recent observations and model runs through the day have shown little deviation, reinforcing trader consensus backed by real capital at risk. Only a sharp, unexpected drop in cloud cover or revised observational data from official Beijing stations could realistically shift the outcome toward cooler thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,522End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds strongly favor 25°C as Beijing’s lowest temperature on August 23 because consensus forecasts from multiple models project overnight lows near that threshold under persistent warmth, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover. Dew points around 24–26°C have limited radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated above the historical August average of roughly 21°C. Recent observations and model runs through the day have shown little deviation, reinforcing trader consensus backed by real capital at risk. Only a sharp, unexpected drop in cloud cover or revised observational data from official Beijing stations could realistically shift the outcome toward cooler thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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