Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles indicate the overnight minimum in Austin on August 23 will settle in the upper 70s under clear skies, light southerly flow, and persistent hot, dry conditions with highs exceeding 100°F. This aligns with the market-implied 92.5% consensus on a 74-75°F daily low, reflecting the absence of any frontal passage or significant moisture that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 73°F, but current atmospheric stability supports the warmer outcome. A realistic challenge would require rapid model shifts from unexpected convection or denser cloud cover overnight, which could drop readings into the low 70s before official verification at the primary reporting station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 23?
74-75°F 84%
72-73°F 8%
71°F or below 4%
88-89°F <1%
$2,616 Vol.
$2,616 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
4%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
90%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 84%
72-73°F 8%
71°F or below 4%
88-89°F <1%
$2,616 Vol.
$2,616 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
$41 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$84 Vol.
8%
74-75°F
$234 Vol.
90%
76-77°F
$335 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$858 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$165 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$399 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles indicate the overnight minimum in Austin on August 23 will settle in the upper 70s under clear skies, light southerly flow, and persistent hot, dry conditions with highs exceeding 100°F. This aligns with the market-implied 92.5% consensus on a 74-75°F daily low, reflecting the absence of any frontal passage or significant moisture that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 73°F, but current atmospheric stability supports the warmer outcome. A realistic challenge would require rapid model shifts from unexpected convection or denser cloud cover overnight, which could drop readings into the low 70s before official verification at the primary reporting station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,616End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles indicate the overnight minimum in Austin on August 23 will settle in the upper 70s under clear skies, light southerly flow, and persistent hot, dry conditions with highs exceeding 100°F. This aligns with the market-implied 92.5% consensus on a 74-75°F daily low, reflecting the absence of any frontal passage or significant moisture that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 73°F, but current atmospheric stability supports the warmer outcome. A realistic challenge would require rapid model shifts from unexpected convection or denser cloud cover overnight, which could drop readings into the low 70s before official verification at the primary reporting station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,616End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles indicate the overnight minimum in Austin on August 23 will settle in the upper 70s under clear skies, light southerly flow, and persistent hot, dry conditions with highs exceeding 100°F. This aligns with the market-implied 92.5% consensus on a 74-75°F daily low, reflecting the absence of any frontal passage or significant moisture that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 73°F, but current atmospheric stability supports the warmer outcome. A realistic challenge would require rapid model shifts from unexpected convection or denser cloud cover overnight, which could drop readings into the low 70s before official verification at the primary reporting station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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