Current ensemble forecasts from global models show Ankara's overnight minimum on August 26 likely reaching 14–16°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds near 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10°C that promote efficient radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions favor the market's tight clustering around 14–15°C outcomes, as reduced cloud cover and minimal boundary-layer mixing allow surface temperatures to drop more than the seasonal average low of roughly 17°C. Minor model disagreements in wind speed or residual moisture could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the city's 890 m elevation and urban heat-island effects add localized uncertainty ahead of final Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 26?
15°C 44%
13°C or below 44%
14°C 44%
18°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
13°C or below
44%
14°C
44%
15°C
44%
16°C
27%
17°C
32%
18°C
35%
19°C
28%
20°C
11%
21°C
11%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
15°C 44%
13°C or below 44%
14°C 44%
18°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
13°C or below
$16 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$0 Vol.
44%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
32%
18°C
$0 Vol.
35%
19°C
$50 Vol.
28%
20°C
$85 Vol.
11%
21°C
$20 Vol.
11%
22°C
$150 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$90 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models show Ankara's overnight minimum on August 26 likely reaching 14–16°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds near 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10°C that promote efficient radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions favor the market's tight clustering around 14–15°C outcomes, as reduced cloud cover and minimal boundary-layer mixing allow surface temperatures to drop more than the seasonal average low of roughly 17°C. Minor model disagreements in wind speed or residual moisture could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the city's 890 m elevation and urban heat-island effects add localized uncertainty ahead of final Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models show Ankara's overnight minimum on August 26 likely reaching 14–16°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds near 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10°C that promote efficient radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions favor the market's tight clustering around 14–15°C outcomes, as reduced cloud cover and minimal boundary-layer mixing allow surface temperatures to drop more than the seasonal average low of roughly 17°C. Minor model disagreements in wind speed or residual moisture could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the city's 890 m elevation and urban heat-island effects add localized uncertainty ahead of final Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$411End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models show Ankara's overnight minimum on August 26 likely reaching 14–16°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds near 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10°C that promote efficient radiative cooling after sunset. These conditions favor the market's tight clustering around 14–15°C outcomes, as reduced cloud cover and minimal boundary-layer mixing allow surface temperatures to drop more than the seasonal average low of roughly 17°C. Minor model disagreements in wind speed or residual moisture could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, while the city's 890 m elevation and urban heat-island effects add localized uncertainty ahead of final Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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