Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific basin, combined with steering patterns favoring northward tracks into China's coastline, has positioned greater than eight landfalls as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. As of late August 2026, confirmed strikes include Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, exceeding the early-season pace amid neutral ENSO conditions that shift genesis zones and recurvature toward southern and eastern provinces. Official monitoring from agencies like China's National Meteorological Centre and JTWC shows intensified July activity, with forecasts projecting continued peaks through September; historical baselines of six to eight annual landfalls and recent model runs support trader consensus for an above-normal total while acknowledging variability in late-season tracks and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 13%
6 9.3%
$15,254 Vol.
$15,254 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
1%
5
1%
6
9%
7
13%
8
22%
Greater than 8
56%
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 13%
6 9.3%
$15,254 Vol.
$15,254 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,132 Vol.
1%
5
$4,119 Vol.
1%
6
$2,602 Vol.
9%
7
$1,459 Vol.
13%
8
$2,012 Vol.
22%
Greater than 8
$3,930 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific basin, combined with steering patterns favoring northward tracks into China's coastline, has positioned greater than eight landfalls as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. As of late August 2026, confirmed strikes include Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, exceeding the early-season pace amid neutral ENSO conditions that shift genesis zones and recurvature toward southern and eastern provinces. Official monitoring from agencies like China's National Meteorological Centre and JTWC shows intensified July activity, with forecasts projecting continued peaks through September; historical baselines of six to eight annual landfalls and recent model runs support trader consensus for an above-normal total while acknowledging variability in late-season tracks and intensity.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$15,254End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific basin, combined with steering patterns favoring northward tracks into China's coastline, has positioned greater than eight landfalls as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. As of late August 2026, confirmed strikes include Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, exceeding the early-season pace amid neutral ENSO conditions that shift genesis zones and recurvature toward southern and eastern provinces. Official monitoring from agencies like China's National Meteorological Centre and JTWC shows intensified July activity, with forecasts projecting continued peaks through September; historical baselines of six to eight annual landfalls and recent model runs support trader consensus for an above-normal total while acknowledging variability in late-season tracks and intensity.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$15,254End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific basin, combined with steering patterns favoring northward tracks into China's coastline, has positioned greater than eight landfalls as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. As of late August 2026, confirmed strikes include Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, exceeding the early-season pace amid neutral ENSO conditions that shift genesis zones and recurvature toward southern and eastern provinces. Official monitoring from agencies like China's National Meteorological Centre and JTWC shows intensified July activity, with forecasts projecting continued peaks through September; historical baselines of six to eight annual landfalls and recent model runs support trader consensus for an above-normal total while acknowledging variability in late-season tracks and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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