NOAA’s updated August 6 outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson category 3+), incorporating the two early tropical storms Arthur and Bertha. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification and reducing overall formation risk through the climatological peak in early September. No Atlantic systems are currently expected to develop in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center guidance. Landfall locations remain governed by short-term steering patterns and individual storm tracks rather than seasonal totals, with new NHC model runs and NOAA updates providing the next key data points for traders assessing regional probabilities along the Gulf or Southeast coasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
NEW
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
15%
Louisiana
13%
Mississippi
9%
Alabama
6%
Florida
26%
Georgia
5%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
13%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
2%
Delaware
3%
New Jersey
4%
New York
2%
Connecticut
4%
Rhode Island
4%
Massachusetts
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Maine
2%
Hawaii
10%
$9,525 Vol.
Texas
$88 Vol.
15%
Louisiana
$203 Vol.
13%
Mississippi
$301 Vol.
9%
Alabama
$683 Vol.
6%
Florida
$224 Vol.
26%
Georgia
$1,333 Vol.
5%
South Carolina
$182 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$40 Vol.
13%
Virginia
$458 Vol.
5%
Maryland
$952 Vol.
2%
Delaware
$411 Vol.
3%
New Jersey
$21 Vol.
4%
New York
$770 Vol.
2%
Connecticut
$430 Vol.
4%
Rhode Island
$274 Vol.
4%
Massachusetts
$1,072 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$817 Vol.
3%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
2%
Hawaii
$0 Vol.
10%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August 6 outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson category 3+), incorporating the two early tropical storms Arthur and Bertha. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification and reducing overall formation risk through the climatological peak in early September. No Atlantic systems are currently expected to develop in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center guidance. Landfall locations remain governed by short-term steering patterns and individual storm tracks rather than seasonal totals, with new NHC model runs and NOAA updates providing the next key data points for traders assessing regional probabilities along the Gulf or Southeast coasts.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volume
$9,525End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August 6 outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson category 3+), incorporating the two early tropical storms Arthur and Bertha. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification and reducing overall formation risk through the climatological peak in early September. No Atlantic systems are currently expected to develop in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center guidance. Landfall locations remain governed by short-term steering patterns and individual storm tracks rather than seasonal totals, with new NHC model runs and NOAA updates providing the next key data points for traders assessing regional probabilities along the Gulf or Southeast coasts.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Volume
$9,525End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August 6 outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson category 3+), incorporating the two early tropical storms Arthur and Bertha. Weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification and reducing overall formation risk through the climatological peak in early September. No Atlantic systems are currently expected to develop in the next seven days per National Hurricane Center guidance. Landfall locations remain governed by short-term steering patterns and individual storm tracks rather than seasonal totals, with new NHC model runs and NOAA updates providing the next key data points for traders assessing regional probabilities along the Gulf or Southeast coasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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