Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
| Alabama | 50% |
| Texas | 32% |
| Florida | 23% |
| Louisiana | 19% |
| Mississippi | 15% |
| Hawaii | 10% |
| Georgia | 8% |
| New York | 7% |
| New Jersey | 7% |
| Virginia | 6% |
| North Carolina | 4% |
| Maryland | 4% |
| Massachusetts | 4% |
| New Hampshire | 4% |
| South Carolina | 3% |
| Delaware | 3% |
| Rhode Island | 3% |
| Connecticut | 3% |
| Maine | 2% |
Rules
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisori