Recent forecasts from sources including timeanddate.com and AccuWeather indicate Shanghai's August 19 high will likely reach 31–32°C (88–90°F), consistent with late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions where daytime heating peaks before potential afternoon convection. Model consensus shows isolated showers or thundershowers that could limit maximum temperatures, while high humidity and light easterly flow maintain typical seasonal values near the 32°C August average. These factors explain the market's strong weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (31.5%), as traders incorporate official guidance and short-range model runs that show limited upside beyond 33°C absent clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?
31°C 47%
32°C 32%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NEW
$12,774 Vol.
NEW
$12,774 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
16%
31°C
47%
32°C
32%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 47%
32°C 32%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NEW
$12,774 Vol.
NEW
$12,774 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
$221 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,310 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,157 Vol.
4%
30°C
$3,453 Vol.
16%
31°C
$2,231 Vol.
47%
32°C
$1,751 Vol.
32%
33°C
$724 Vol.
5%
34°C
$1,038 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$273 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including timeanddate.com and AccuWeather indicate Shanghai's August 19 high will likely reach 31–32°C (88–90°F), consistent with late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions where daytime heating peaks before potential afternoon convection. Model consensus shows isolated showers or thundershowers that could limit maximum temperatures, while high humidity and light easterly flow maintain typical seasonal values near the 32°C August average. These factors explain the market's strong weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (31.5%), as traders incorporate official guidance and short-range model runs that show limited upside beyond 33°C absent clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,774End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including timeanddate.com and AccuWeather indicate Shanghai's August 19 high will likely reach 31–32°C (88–90°F), consistent with late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions where daytime heating peaks before potential afternoon convection. Model consensus shows isolated showers or thundershowers that could limit maximum temperatures, while high humidity and light easterly flow maintain typical seasonal values near the 32°C August average. These factors explain the market's strong weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (31.5%), as traders incorporate official guidance and short-range model runs that show limited upside beyond 33°C absent clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,774End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including timeanddate.com and AccuWeather indicate Shanghai's August 19 high will likely reach 31–32°C (88–90°F), consistent with late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions where daytime heating peaks before potential afternoon convection. Model consensus shows isolated showers or thundershowers that could limit maximum temperatures, while high humidity and light easterly flow maintain typical seasonal values near the 32°C August average. These factors explain the market's strong weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (31.5%), as traders incorporate official guidance and short-range model runs that show limited upside beyond 33°C absent clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated forecasts and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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