Recent forecasts from meteorological models and agencies point to a daily maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on August 19, driving the leading market-implied probability at 31.5% for that outcome amid closely bunched odds for 32–34°C. Subtropical summer conditions typical of the region—high humidity above 75%, potential for afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover—introduce uncertainty in peak timing and intensity, while the urban heat island effect can locally elevate readings by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average around 32°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C under clearer skies or weaker monsoon influences, and short-term model runs show minor divergences in precipitation timing that could shift the realized maximum by a degree. Updated guidance expected within the next 12–24 hours from regional monitoring will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?
33°C 32%
34°C 23%
32°C 22%
35°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
8%
32°C
22%
33°C
32%
34°C
23%
35°C
10%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 32%
34°C 23%
32°C 22%
35°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
$191 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$603 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$458 Vol.
1%
30°C
$142 Vol.
5%
31°C
$183 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,550 Vol.
22%
33°C
$499 Vol.
32%
34°C
$253 Vol.
23%
35°C
$569 Vol.
10%
36°C
$315 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$93 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models and agencies point to a daily maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on August 19, driving the leading market-implied probability at 31.5% for that outcome amid closely bunched odds for 32–34°C. Subtropical summer conditions typical of the region—high humidity above 75%, potential for afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover—introduce uncertainty in peak timing and intensity, while the urban heat island effect can locally elevate readings by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average around 32°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C under clearer skies or weaker monsoon influences, and short-term model runs show minor divergences in precipitation timing that could shift the realized maximum by a degree. Updated guidance expected within the next 12–24 hours from regional monitoring will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,845End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models and agencies point to a daily maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on August 19, driving the leading market-implied probability at 31.5% for that outcome amid closely bunched odds for 32–34°C. Subtropical summer conditions typical of the region—high humidity above 75%, potential for afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover—introduce uncertainty in peak timing and intensity, while the urban heat island effect can locally elevate readings by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average around 32°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C under clearer skies or weaker monsoon influences, and short-term model runs show minor divergences in precipitation timing that could shift the realized maximum by a degree. Updated guidance expected within the next 12–24 hours from regional monitoring will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,845End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models and agencies point to a daily maximum near 33°C in Shenzhen on August 19, driving the leading market-implied probability at 31.5% for that outcome amid closely bunched odds for 32–34°C. Subtropical summer conditions typical of the region—high humidity above 75%, potential for afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and variable cloud cover—introduce uncertainty in peak timing and intensity, while the urban heat island effect can locally elevate readings by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average around 32°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C under clearer skies or weaker monsoon influences, and short-term model runs show minor divergences in precipitation timing that could shift the realized maximum by a degree. Updated guidance expected within the next 12–24 hours from regional monitoring will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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