Forecast models from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles show strong consensus for a Moscow maximum of 19–21°C on August 24 under stable late-summer conditions. Light northwest winds, modest atmospheric moisture, and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate surface heating and suppress extremes, aligning with historical August variability around 22–24°C. This produces the market's tight concentration on 19°C (43.5%) and 20°C (35%), reflecting traders' assessment of ensemble agreement and limited upside potential from clearer skies or stronger insolation. Minor model spreads or last-minute wind shifts could still tip the outcome within the narrow range before official observations finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 24?
19°C 45%
20°C 35%
21°C 10%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
9%
19°C
45%
20°C
35%
21°C
10%
22°C
3%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 45%
20°C 35%
21°C 10%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$288 Vol.
1%
16°C
$148 Vol.
1%
17°C
$322 Vol.
3%
18°C
$425 Vol.
9%
19°C
$332 Vol.
45%
20°C
$2,066 Vol.
35%
21°C
$354 Vol.
10%
22°C
$295 Vol.
3%
23°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$232 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles show strong consensus for a Moscow maximum of 19–21°C on August 24 under stable late-summer conditions. Light northwest winds, modest atmospheric moisture, and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate surface heating and suppress extremes, aligning with historical August variability around 22–24°C. This produces the market's tight concentration on 19°C (43.5%) and 20°C (35%), reflecting traders' assessment of ensemble agreement and limited upside potential from clearer skies or stronger insolation. Minor model spreads or last-minute wind shifts could still tip the outcome within the narrow range before official observations finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,823End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles show strong consensus for a Moscow maximum of 19–21°C on August 24 under stable late-summer conditions. Light northwest winds, modest atmospheric moisture, and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate surface heating and suppress extremes, aligning with historical August variability around 22–24°C. This produces the market's tight concentration on 19°C (43.5%) and 20°C (35%), reflecting traders' assessment of ensemble agreement and limited upside potential from clearer skies or stronger insolation. Minor model spreads or last-minute wind shifts could still tip the outcome within the narrow range before official observations finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,823End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles show strong consensus for a Moscow maximum of 19–21°C on August 24 under stable late-summer conditions. Light northwest winds, modest atmospheric moisture, and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate surface heating and suppress extremes, aligning with historical August variability around 22–24°C. This produces the market's tight concentration on 19°C (43.5%) and 20°C (35%), reflecting traders' assessment of ensemble agreement and limited upside potential from clearer skies or stronger insolation. Minor model spreads or last-minute wind shifts could still tip the outcome within the narrow range before official observations finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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