**Persistent summer heat under a strong subtropical ridge continues to drive Austin temperatures near seasonal peaks.** National Weather Service forecasts for August 8, 2026, call for sunny to mostly sunny skies and a high near 99°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, with heat-index values potentially reaching 105–107°F amid moderate humidity. This aligns with the market-implied probability of 56.5% for 98–99°F, as climatological averages for early August peak around 98–99°F and recent model runs show limited cooling from the current upper-level high-pressure pattern. Supporting context includes the ongoing warm, drier-than-normal regime across South-Central Texas, with no significant cold-front passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to suppress afternoon heating. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance place the most likely range in the upper 90s, keeping 96–97°F (27.5%) as a close secondary outcome while capping the chance of 100–101°F (11.0%) unless localized mixing or slight forecast adjustments push readings higher. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will provide the final verification data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 8?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 8?
98-99°F 56%
96-97°F 28%
100-101°F 13%
94-95°F 2%
NEW
$11,218 Vol.
NEW
$11,218 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
28%
98-99°F
56%
100-101°F
13%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 56%
96-97°F 28%
100-101°F 13%
94-95°F 2%
NEW
$11,218 Vol.
NEW
$11,218 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
87°F or below
$395 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$679 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$456 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$458 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$573 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$4,171 Vol.
28%
98-99°F
$2,600 Vol.
56%
100-101°F
$611 Vol.
13%
102-103°F
$406 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$331 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$539 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat under a strong subtropical ridge continues to drive Austin temperatures near seasonal peaks.** National Weather Service forecasts for August 8, 2026, call for sunny to mostly sunny skies and a high near 99°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, with heat-index values potentially reaching 105–107°F amid moderate humidity. This aligns with the market-implied probability of 56.5% for 98–99°F, as climatological averages for early August peak around 98–99°F and recent model runs show limited cooling from the current upper-level high-pressure pattern.
Supporting context includes the ongoing warm, drier-than-normal regime across South-Central Texas, with no significant cold-front passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to suppress afternoon heating. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance place the most likely range in the upper 90s, keeping 96–97°F (27.5%) as a close secondary outcome while capping the chance of 100–101°F (11.0%) unless localized mixing or slight forecast adjustments push readings higher. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will provide the final verification data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,218End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat under a strong subtropical ridge continues to drive Austin temperatures near seasonal peaks.** National Weather Service forecasts for August 8, 2026, call for sunny to mostly sunny skies and a high near 99°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, with heat-index values potentially reaching 105–107°F amid moderate humidity. This aligns with the market-implied probability of 56.5% for 98–99°F, as climatological averages for early August peak around 98–99°F and recent model runs show limited cooling from the current upper-level high-pressure pattern.
Supporting context includes the ongoing warm, drier-than-normal regime across South-Central Texas, with no significant cold-front passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to suppress afternoon heating. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance place the most likely range in the upper 90s, keeping 96–97°F (27.5%) as a close secondary outcome while capping the chance of 100–101°F (11.0%) unless localized mixing or slight forecast adjustments push readings higher. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will provide the final verification data for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,218End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent summer heat under a strong subtropical ridge continues to drive Austin temperatures near seasonal peaks.** National Weather Service forecasts for August 8, 2026, call for sunny to mostly sunny skies and a high near 99°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, with heat-index values potentially reaching 105–107°F amid moderate humidity. This aligns with the market-implied probability of 56.5% for 98–99°F, as climatological averages for early August peak around 98–99°F and recent model runs show limited cooling from the current upper-level high-pressure pattern. Supporting context includes the ongoing warm, drier-than-normal regime across South-Central Texas, with no significant cold-front passage or increased cloud cover/precipitation expected to suppress afternoon heating. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance place the most likely range in the upper 90s, keeping 96–97°F (27.5%) as a close secondary outcome while capping the chance of 100–101°F (11.0%) unless localized mixing or slight forecast adjustments push readings higher. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will provide the final verification data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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