Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Chengdu on August 10 likely ranging 34–37°C, driven by variable cloud cover, humidity, and weak steering flows in the Sichuan Basin. Persistent monsoon moisture and scattered showers favor the lower end around 35°C, while brief clearing could allow stronger solar heating and push readings toward 36–37°C. These closely matched market odds reflect genuine model spread and ensemble uncertainty typical for 48-hour basin forecasts, where small differences in boundary layer conditions or afternoon convection determine the daily maximum. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but recent patterns show occasional spikes above 35°C when ridging strengthens. Traders will monitor updated model runs and official advisories for resolution criteria tied to official station readings.