**The high market-implied probability of "No" (96.3%) for a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems from the rapid containment of the year's only notable cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced 13 cases and 3 deaths.** Official monitoring by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC ended in June–July 2026 after a 42-day quarantine period for hundreds of contacts across multiple countries yielded no secondary transmission or sustained chains. Andes hantavirus, the sole strain capable of person-to-person spread, requires prolonged close contact and lacks the environmental stability for efficient airborne dissemination; all confirmed activity remained tied to the initial zoonotic spillover or ship-based exposure. Routine rodent-borne cases continue at typical seasonal levels (e.g., ~100 in Argentina for 2025–2026), with no evidence of exponential growth or new variants enabling pandemic potential. While ecological shifts could theoretically increase rodent-human contact, current surveillance data and the absence of ongoing clusters support trader consensus that a 2026 pandemic is highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$17,926,607 Vol.
$17,926,607 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$17,926,607 Vol.
$17,926,607 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability of "No" (96.3%) for a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems from the rapid containment of the year's only notable cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced 13 cases and 3 deaths.** Official monitoring by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC ended in June–July 2026 after a 42-day quarantine period for hundreds of contacts across multiple countries yielded no secondary transmission or sustained chains. Andes hantavirus, the sole strain capable of person-to-person spread, requires prolonged close contact and lacks the environmental stability for efficient airborne dissemination; all confirmed activity remained tied to the initial zoonotic spillover or ship-based exposure. Routine rodent-borne cases continue at typical seasonal levels (e.g., ~100 in Argentina for 2025–2026), with no evidence of exponential growth or new variants enabling pandemic potential. While ecological shifts could theoretically increase rodent-human contact, current surveillance data and the absence of ongoing clusters support trader consensus that a 2026 pandemic is highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,926,607End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability of "No" (96.3%) for a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems from the rapid containment of the year's only notable cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced 13 cases and 3 deaths.** Official monitoring by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC ended in June–July 2026 after a 42-day quarantine period for hundreds of contacts across multiple countries yielded no secondary transmission or sustained chains. Andes hantavirus, the sole strain capable of person-to-person spread, requires prolonged close contact and lacks the environmental stability for efficient airborne dissemination; all confirmed activity remained tied to the initial zoonotic spillover or ship-based exposure. Routine rodent-borne cases continue at typical seasonal levels (e.g., ~100 in Argentina for 2025–2026), with no evidence of exponential growth or new variants enabling pandemic potential. While ecological shifts could theoretically increase rodent-human contact, current surveillance data and the absence of ongoing clusters support trader consensus that a 2026 pandemic is highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,926,607End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The high market-implied probability of "No" (96.3%) for a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems from the rapid containment of the year's only notable cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced 13 cases and 3 deaths.** Official monitoring by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC ended in June–July 2026 after a 42-day quarantine period for hundreds of contacts across multiple countries yielded no secondary transmission or sustained chains. Andes hantavirus, the sole strain capable of person-to-person spread, requires prolonged close contact and lacks the environmental stability for efficient airborne dissemination; all confirmed activity remained tied to the initial zoonotic spillover or ship-based exposure. Routine rodent-borne cases continue at typical seasonal levels (e.g., ~100 in Argentina for 2025–2026), with no evidence of exponential growth or new variants enabling pandemic potential. While ecological shifts could theoretically increase rodent-human contact, current surveillance data and the absence of ongoing clusters support trader consensus that a 2026 pandemic is highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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