The rapid spread of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak across eastern DRC—now the country’s largest on record with over 5,500 confirmed cases and transmission into multiple provinces—has fueled trader sentiment toward a “Yes” outcome at 71% implied probability. Proximity to borders with South Sudan and other neighbors, combined with high population mobility from mining areas and displacement, raises the chance of a fresh imported case before October 1, especially as containment efforts face insecurity and limited tools for this strain. Uganda’s outbreak has ended and France’s single imported case occurred months ago, keeping the focus on new detections. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing weekly case surges, border surveillance results, and any WHO or Africa CDC alerts that could accelerate cross-border alerts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
71% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
71% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The rapid spread of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak across eastern DRC—now the country’s largest on record with over 5,500 confirmed cases and transmission into multiple provinces—has fueled trader sentiment toward a “Yes” outcome at 71% implied probability. Proximity to borders with South Sudan and other neighbors, combined with high population mobility from mining areas and displacement, raises the chance of a fresh imported case before October 1, especially as containment efforts face insecurity and limited tools for this strain. Uganda’s outbreak has ended and France’s single imported case occurred months ago, keeping the focus on new detections. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing weekly case surges, border surveillance results, and any WHO or Africa CDC alerts that could accelerate cross-border alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$132End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The rapid spread of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak across eastern DRC—now the country’s largest on record with over 5,500 confirmed cases and transmission into multiple provinces—has fueled trader sentiment toward a “Yes” outcome at 71% implied probability. Proximity to borders with South Sudan and other neighbors, combined with high population mobility from mining areas and displacement, raises the chance of a fresh imported case before October 1, especially as containment efforts face insecurity and limited tools for this strain. Uganda’s outbreak has ended and France’s single imported case occurred months ago, keeping the focus on new detections. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing weekly case surges, border surveillance results, and any WHO or Africa CDC alerts that could accelerate cross-border alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$132End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The rapid spread of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak across eastern DRC—now the country’s largest on record with over 5,500 confirmed cases and transmission into multiple provinces—has fueled trader sentiment toward a “Yes” outcome at 71% implied probability. Proximity to borders with South Sudan and other neighbors, combined with high population mobility from mining areas and displacement, raises the chance of a fresh imported case before October 1, especially as containment efforts face insecurity and limited tools for this strain. Uganda’s outbreak has ended and France’s single imported case occurred months ago, keeping the focus on new detections. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing weekly case surges, border surveillance results, and any WHO or Africa CDC alerts that could accelerate cross-border alerts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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