ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 and related updates, including native 30-second 4K clips, up to 50 reference inputs, and strong benchmark leadership on arenas like Artificial Analysis for prompt adherence and image-to-video, anchor trader consensus around its 47.5% implied probability. Chinese labs such as Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 and Alibaba's Wan/HappyHorse models follow closely in ELO ratings and value metrics with native audio and multi-shot capabilities, while Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash compete on realism and 4K output. OpenAI's Sora discontinuation, with API shutdown imminent, explains its low 9.5% odds. The tight field reflects rapid iteration cycles, with potential new releases or benchmark shifts by late November serving as key swing factors in this subjective "best" resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于字节跳动 48%
Lightricks 40%
Meta 35%
Kandinsky 24%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
字节跳动
48%
Lightricks
40%
Meta
35%
Kandinsky
24%
Pruna
16%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
15%
Black Forest Labs
12%
MiniMax
11%
腾讯
11%
Pika
11%
OpenAI
10%
Runway
9%
谷歌
9%
KlingAI
5%
Genmo AI
4%
Pixverse
3%
Luma AI
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
字节跳动 48%
Lightricks 40%
Meta 35%
Kandinsky 24%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
字节跳动
$71 交易量
48%
Lightricks
$71 交易量
40%
Meta
$71 交易量
35%
Kandinsky
$71 交易量
24%
Pruna
$57 交易量
16%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
$57 交易量
15%
Black Forest Labs
$57 交易量
12%
MiniMax
$57 交易量
11%
腾讯
$55 交易量
11%
Pika
$50 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$71 交易量
10%
Runway
$57 交易量
9%
谷歌
$71 交易量
9%
KlingAI
$50 交易量
5%
Genmo AI
$50 交易量
4%
Pixverse
$57 交易量
3%
Luma AI
$57 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$56 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 and related updates, including native 30-second 4K clips, up to 50 reference inputs, and strong benchmark leadership on arenas like Artificial Analysis for prompt adherence and image-to-video, anchor trader consensus around its 47.5% implied probability. Chinese labs such as Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 and Alibaba's Wan/HappyHorse models follow closely in ELO ratings and value metrics with native audio and multi-shot capabilities, while Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash compete on realism and 4K output. OpenAI's Sora discontinuation, with API shutdown imminent, explains its low 9.5% odds. The tight field reflects rapid iteration cycles, with potential new releases or benchmark shifts by late November serving as key swing factors in this subjective "best" resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
交易量
$1,081结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".ByteDance's Seedance 2.5 and related updates, including native 30-second 4K clips, up to 50 reference inputs, and strong benchmark leadership on arenas like Artificial Analysis for prompt adherence and image-to-video, anchor trader consensus around its 47.5% implied probability. Chinese labs such as Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 and Alibaba's Wan/HappyHorse models follow closely in ELO ratings and value metrics with native audio and multi-shot capabilities, while Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash compete on realism and 4K output. OpenAI's Sora discontinuation, with API shutdown imminent, explains its low 9.5% odds. The tight field reflects rapid iteration cycles, with potential new releases or benchmark shifts by late November serving as key swing factors in this subjective "best" resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,081结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETByteDance's Seedance 2.5 and related updates, including native 30-second 4K clips, up to 50 reference inputs, and strong benchmark leadership on arenas like Artificial Analysis for prompt adherence and image-to-video, anchor trader consensus around its 47.5% implied probability. Chinese labs such as Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 and Alibaba's Wan/HappyHorse models follow closely in ELO ratings and value metrics with native audio and multi-shot capabilities, while Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash compete on realism and 4K output. OpenAI's Sora discontinuation, with API shutdown imminent, explains its low 9.5% odds. The tight field reflects rapid iteration cycles, with potential new releases or benchmark shifts by late November serving as key swing factors in this subjective "best" resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题