The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SpaceXAI 24%
OpenAI 24%
阿里巴巴 23%
美团 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
SpaceXAI
24%
OpenAI
24%
阿里巴巴
23%
美团
21%
Moonshot
20%
DeepSeek
20%
Anthropic
19%
百度
19%
腾讯
18%
谷歌
18%
字节跳动
17%
Thinky
14%
小米
14%
StepFun
14%
英伟达
13%
Mistral
13%
Z.ai
13%
亚马逊
12%
Meta
11%
微软
9%
MiniMax
7%
SpaceXAI 24%
OpenAI 24%
阿里巴巴 23%
美团 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
SpaceXAI
$36 交易量
24%
OpenAI
$36 交易量
24%
阿里巴巴
$36 交易量
23%
美团
$36 交易量
21%
Moonshot
$36 交易量
20%
DeepSeek
$36 交易量
20%
Anthropic
$36 交易量
19%
百度
$36 交易量
19%
腾讯
$36 交易量
18%
谷歌
$36 交易量
18%
字节跳动
$36 交易量
17%
Thinky
$36 交易量
14%
小米
$36 交易量
14%
StepFun
$36 交易量
14%
英伟达
$36 交易量
13%
Mistral
$36 交易量
13%
Z.ai
$36 交易量
13%
亚马逊
$36 交易量
12%
Meta
$36 交易量
11%
微软
$36 交易量
9%
MiniMax
$36 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$765结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$765结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThe closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题