Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 59%
阿里巴巴 41%
Z.ai 27%
谷歌 25%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Anthropic
59%
阿里巴巴
41%
Z.ai
27%
谷歌
21%
DeepSeek
23%
MiniMax
23%
OpenAI
21%
美团
20%
Mistral
19%
腾讯
19%
Meta
11%
小米
11%
SpaceXAI
10%
微软
9%
百度
8%
英伟达
8%
StepFun
9%
Thinky
4%
字节跳动
10%
Moonshot
4%
亚马逊
12%
Anthropic 59%
阿里巴巴 41%
Z.ai 27%
谷歌 25%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Anthropic
$81 交易量
59%
阿里巴巴
$60 交易量
41%
Z.ai
$50 交易量
27%
谷歌
$86 交易量
21%
DeepSeek
$50 交易量
23%
MiniMax
$50 交易量
23%
OpenAI
$50 交易量
21%
美团
$50 交易量
20%
Mistral
$64 交易量
19%
腾讯
$50 交易量
19%
Meta
$66 交易量
11%
小米
$66 交易量
11%
SpaceXAI
$64 交易量
10%
微软
$64 交易量
9%
百度
$64 交易量
8%
英伟达
$66 交易量
8%
StepFun
$72 交易量
9%
Thinky
$103 交易量
4%
字节跳动
$77 交易量
10%
Moonshot
$66 交易量
4%
亚马逊
$65 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,360结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,360结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETAnthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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