Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” primarily because Congress has advanced no comprehensive federal AI safety legislation despite dozens of introduced measures in the 119th session. The administration has prioritized a minimally burdensome national framework through executive action and preemption efforts, both of which have encountered repeated legislative setbacks, including failed attempts to impose moratoriums on state rules. Bipartisan discussion drafts such as the Great American AI Act remain at the early stage without committee or floor momentum, while states continue enacting targeted transparency and auditing requirements. With limited session time remaining before 2027 and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the current trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to swift federal passage of a dedicated safety bill.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
11% 概率
$101,407 交易量
$101,407 交易量
2026-12-30
是
11% 概率
$101,407 交易量
$101,407 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” primarily because Congress has advanced no comprehensive federal AI safety legislation despite dozens of introduced measures in the 119th session. The administration has prioritized a minimally burdensome national framework through executive action and preemption efforts, both of which have encountered repeated legislative setbacks, including failed attempts to impose moratoriums on state rules. Bipartisan discussion drafts such as the Great American AI Act remain at the early stage without committee or floor momentum, while states continue enacting targeted transparency and auditing requirements. With limited session time remaining before 2027 and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the current trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to swift federal passage of a dedicated safety bill.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$101,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” primarily because Congress has advanced no comprehensive federal AI safety legislation despite dozens of introduced measures in the 119th session. The administration has prioritized a minimally burdensome national framework through executive action and preemption efforts, both of which have encountered repeated legislative setbacks, including failed attempts to impose moratoriums on state rules. Bipartisan discussion drafts such as the Great American AI Act remain at the early stage without committee or floor momentum, while states continue enacting targeted transparency and auditing requirements. With limited session time remaining before 2027 and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the current trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to swift federal passage of a dedicated safety bill.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$101,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” primarily because Congress has advanced no comprehensive federal AI safety legislation despite dozens of introduced measures in the 119th session. The administration has prioritized a minimally burdensome national framework through executive action and preemption efforts, both of which have encountered repeated legislative setbacks, including failed attempts to impose moratoriums on state rules. Bipartisan discussion drafts such as the Great American AI Act remain at the early stage without committee or floor momentum, while states continue enacting targeted transparency and auditing requirements. With limited session time remaining before 2027 and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the current trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to swift federal passage of a dedicated safety bill.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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