Traders assign just an 8.5% implied probability that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2027 because current large language models continue to show clear gaps in general reasoning, long-term planning, and reliable performance outside narrow domains. Recent model releases have delivered incremental gains on benchmarks rather than the broad, human-level capabilities required for AGI, while OpenAI leadership has repeatedly emphasized ongoing technical hurdles and the need for further scaling. Regulatory scrutiny and safety concerns have also slowed aggressive deployment timelines. A credible internal breakthrough or revised AGI definition could still shift sentiment, but such outcomes remain low-probability events given the pace of verifiable progress.