Persistent supply constraints for NVIDIA H200 GPUs, with most new capacity booked through August 2026, underpin the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the $5–$6 range. Strong enterprise and memory-intensive AI workloads sustain demand, while hyperscaler on-demand rates often exceed $4–$10 per GPU-hour versus lower neocloud listings around $2.50–$4. Recent Blackwell B200 ramp-up introduces substitution pressure, and scattered reports of modest price softening or expanded availability add downside risk. Traders weigh these offsetting forces—lead times over 40 weeks versus emerging capacity additions—against typical seasonal stability at month-end, producing the tight distribution across $4.50–$6.00 outcomes.