Alibaba’s commanding 66% market-implied probability stems from the sustained momentum of its Qwen3.8-Max frontier model, released in early August 2026 with 2.4 trillion parameters, which quickly climbed global benchmarks and drove triple-digit growth in Alibaba Cloud’s AI revenue. The Qwen family’s open-weight releases have amassed over 900 million Hugging Face downloads, outpacing rivals and powering developer adoption plus enterprise agent platforms. Moonshot’s Kimi K3, open-sourced at 2.8 trillion parameters and competitive on coding and agent benchmarks, supports its 26.6% odds but trails in scale and monetization. Smaller labs like DeepSeek and Z.ai trail further due to narrower commercial reach, while established players such as Baidu and Tencent show limited recent frontier progress. Upcoming September model refreshes and cloud earnings could still shift sentiment before month-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿里巴巴 66%
Moonshot 25.4%
Z.ai 3.1%
腾讯 1.0%
$223,180 交易量
$223,180 交易量
2026-09-30
阿里巴巴
66%
Moonshot
25%
Z.ai
3%
腾讯
1%
百度
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
美团
<1%
StepFun
<1%
阿里巴巴 66%
Moonshot 25.4%
Z.ai 3.1%
腾讯 1.0%
$223,180 交易量
$223,180 交易量
2026-09-30
阿里巴巴
$66,375 交易量
66%
Moonshot
$29,393 交易量
25%
Z.ai
$19,508 交易量
3%
腾讯
$19,338 交易量
1%
百度
$16,589 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$19,006 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$18,474 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$12,624 交易量
<1%
小米
$14,411 交易量
<1%
美团
$3,773 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$3,688 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s commanding 66% market-implied probability stems from the sustained momentum of its Qwen3.8-Max frontier model, released in early August 2026 with 2.4 trillion parameters, which quickly climbed global benchmarks and drove triple-digit growth in Alibaba Cloud’s AI revenue. The Qwen family’s open-weight releases have amassed over 900 million Hugging Face downloads, outpacing rivals and powering developer adoption plus enterprise agent platforms. Moonshot’s Kimi K3, open-sourced at 2.8 trillion parameters and competitive on coding and agent benchmarks, supports its 26.6% odds but trails in scale and monetization. Smaller labs like DeepSeek and Z.ai trail further due to narrower commercial reach, while established players such as Baidu and Tencent show limited recent frontier progress. Upcoming September model refreshes and cloud earnings could still shift sentiment before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$223,180结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s commanding 66% market-implied probability stems from the sustained momentum of its Qwen3.8-Max frontier model, released in early August 2026 with 2.4 trillion parameters, which quickly climbed global benchmarks and drove triple-digit growth in Alibaba Cloud’s AI revenue. The Qwen family’s open-weight releases have amassed over 900 million Hugging Face downloads, outpacing rivals and powering developer adoption plus enterprise agent platforms. Moonshot’s Kimi K3, open-sourced at 2.8 trillion parameters and competitive on coding and agent benchmarks, supports its 26.6% odds but trails in scale and monetization. Smaller labs like DeepSeek and Z.ai trail further due to narrower commercial reach, while established players such as Baidu and Tencent show limited recent frontier progress. Upcoming September model refreshes and cloud earnings could still shift sentiment before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$223,180结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETAlibaba’s commanding 66% market-implied probability stems from the sustained momentum of its Qwen3.8-Max frontier model, released in early August 2026 with 2.4 trillion parameters, which quickly climbed global benchmarks and drove triple-digit growth in Alibaba Cloud’s AI revenue. The Qwen family’s open-weight releases have amassed over 900 million Hugging Face downloads, outpacing rivals and powering developer adoption plus enterprise agent platforms. Moonshot’s Kimi K3, open-sourced at 2.8 trillion parameters and competitive on coding and agent benchmarks, supports its 26.6% odds but trails in scale and monetization. Smaller labs like DeepSeek and Z.ai trail further due to narrower commercial reach, while established players such as Baidu and Tencent show limited recent frontier progress. Upcoming September model refreshes and cloud earnings could still shift sentiment before month-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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