Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1-max has driven its 64.5% implied probability, as the update delivered measurable gains in agentic coding, knowledge work, and benchmark scores such as BenchAlign v5, placing it ahead of prior Claude Opus 5 variants on independent leaderboards. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and cost-efficient performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI as key differentiators in the current competitive landscape. With the market resolving on arena.ai Text Arena rankings just nine days away, limited time remains for rivals to post comparable gains, though the 34.5% on Other reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases that could shift the leaderboard before September 14.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-fable-5.1-max 64%
其他 36%
claude-opus-5-max 1.6%
claude-opus-5-high 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
claude-fable-5.1-max
64%
其他
36%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 64%
其他 36%
claude-opus-5-max 1.6%
claude-opus-5-high 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
claude-fable-5.1-max
$3,398 交易量
64%
其他
$3,487 交易量
36%
claude-opus-5-max
$112 交易量
2%
claude-opus-5-high
$131 交易量
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$244 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1-max has driven its 64.5% implied probability, as the update delivered measurable gains in agentic coding, knowledge work, and benchmark scores such as BenchAlign v5, placing it ahead of prior Claude Opus 5 variants on independent leaderboards. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and cost-efficient performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI as key differentiators in the current competitive landscape. With the market resolving on arena.ai Text Arena rankings just nine days away, limited time remains for rivals to post comparable gains, though the 34.5% on Other reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases that could shift the leaderboard before September 14.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$7,373结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1-max has driven its 64.5% implied probability, as the update delivered measurable gains in agentic coding, knowledge work, and benchmark scores such as BenchAlign v5, placing it ahead of prior Claude Opus 5 variants on independent leaderboards. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and cost-efficient performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI as key differentiators in the current competitive landscape. With the market resolving on arena.ai Text Arena rankings just nine days away, limited time remains for rivals to post comparable gains, though the 34.5% on Other reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases that could shift the leaderboard before September 14.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$7,373结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETAnthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1-max has driven its 64.5% implied probability, as the update delivered measurable gains in agentic coding, knowledge work, and benchmark scores such as BenchAlign v5, placing it ahead of prior Claude Opus 5 variants on independent leaderboards. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and cost-efficient performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI as key differentiators in the current competitive landscape. With the market resolving on arena.ai Text Arena rankings just nine days away, limited time remains for rivals to post comparable gains, though the 34.5% on Other reflects ongoing uncertainty around potential OpenAI or Google releases that could shift the leaderboard before September 14.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题