Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 52%
阿里巴巴 23%
Xiaomi 22%
OpenAI 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Anthropic
38%
阿里巴巴
23%
Xiaomi
22%
OpenAI
19%
Moonshot
18%
百度
18%
Tencent
17%
Z.ai
16%
亚马逊
16%
DeepSeek
14%
ByteDance
14%
Meituan
14%
SpaceXAI
20%
Thinky
14%
Mistral
19%
Nvidia
5%
Meta
14%
MiniMax
13%
谷歌
16%
Microsoft
4%
StepFun
3%
Anthropic 52%
阿里巴巴 23%
Xiaomi 22%
OpenAI 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$138 交易量
38%
阿里巴巴
$91 交易量
23%
Xiaomi
$91 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$91 交易量
19%
Moonshot
$91 交易量
18%
百度
$86 交易量
18%
Tencent
$91 交易量
17%
Z.ai
$91 交易量
16%
亚马逊
$91 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$91 交易量
14%
ByteDance
$91 交易量
14%
Meituan
$91 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$86 交易量
20%
Thinky
$91 交易量
14%
Mistral
$128 交易量
19%
Nvidia
$80 交易量
5%
Meta
$91 交易量
14%
MiniMax
$91 交易量
13%
谷歌
$85 交易量
16%
Microsoft
$84 交易量
4%
StepFun
$91 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
交易量
$1,967结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$1,967结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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