Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench coding score by end of August, driven by the consistent edge of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.x series on agentic coding tasks and contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. Recent July releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol reaching general availability on July 9 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 on July 16, have narrowed gaps on some leaderboards but have not displaced Anthropic’s positioning on LiveBench specifically. OpenAI sits at 33.5% while Moonshot and other Chinese labs trail near 30%, reflecting trader caution around rapid iteration cycles and the benchmark’s monthly refresh of fresh coding problems. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-July or August model updates that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 62%
Mistral 44%
Meituan 44%
StepFun 34%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
60%
Mistral
44%
Meituan
44%
StepFun
34%
Amazon
33%
MiniMax
33%
OpenAI
33%
Moonshot
33%
Microsoft
30%
Alibaba
29%
Thinky
18%
Nvidia
16%
DeepSeek
3%
Xiaomi
18%
Z.ai
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
ByteDance
2%
Baidu
2%
Meta
2%
2%
Tencent
18%
Anthropic 62%
Mistral 44%
Meituan 44%
StepFun 34%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$57 交易量
60%
Mistral
$45 交易量
44%
Meituan
$82 交易量
44%
StepFun
$52 交易量
34%
Amazon
$70 交易量
33%
MiniMax
$74 交易量
33%
OpenAI
$55 交易量
33%
Moonshot
$28 交易量
33%
Microsoft
$70 交易量
30%
Alibaba
$28 交易量
29%
Thinky
$65 交易量
18%
Nvidia
$98 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$92 交易量
3%
Xiaomi
$110 交易量
18%
Z.ai
$20 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$20 交易量
2%
ByteDance
$20 交易量
2%
Baidu
$20 交易量
2%
Meta
$20 交易量
2%
$20 交易量
2%
Tencent
$46 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench coding score by end of August, driven by the consistent edge of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.x series on agentic coding tasks and contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. Recent July releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol reaching general availability on July 9 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 on July 16, have narrowed gaps on some leaderboards but have not displaced Anthropic’s positioning on LiveBench specifically. OpenAI sits at 33.5% while Moonshot and other Chinese labs trail near 30%, reflecting trader caution around rapid iteration cycles and the benchmark’s monthly refresh of fresh coding problems. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-July or August model updates that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,092结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench coding score by end of August, driven by the consistent edge of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.x series on agentic coding tasks and contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. Recent July releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol reaching general availability on July 9 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 on July 16, have narrowed gaps on some leaderboards but have not displaced Anthropic’s positioning on LiveBench specifically. OpenAI sits at 33.5% while Moonshot and other Chinese labs trail near 30%, reflecting trader caution around rapid iteration cycles and the benchmark’s monthly refresh of fresh coding problems. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-July or August model updates that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$1,092结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETAnthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench coding score by end of August, driven by the consistent edge of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.x series on agentic coding tasks and contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. Recent July releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol reaching general availability on July 9 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 on July 16, have narrowed gaps on some leaderboards but have not displaced Anthropic’s positioning on LiveBench specifically. OpenAI sits at 33.5% while Moonshot and other Chinese labs trail near 30%, reflecting trader caution around rapid iteration cycles and the benchmark’s monthly refresh of fresh coding problems. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-July or August model updates that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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