Traders see a tight contest for the leading AI agent by end of August, with Anthropic holding a slim 53% implied edge amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple 49-50% outcomes. Recent model updates have highlighted Anthropic’s strengths in reliable tool use, long-horizon planning, and safety-aligned agent behavior, while OpenAI and others continue rapid iteration on multi-step reasoning and browser or code execution capabilities. Differentiating factors include demonstrated benchmark performance on complex tasks, developer ecosystem adoption, and regulatory scrutiny around autonomous systems. With roughly six weeks remaining, upcoming releases, capability demos, or third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment in this closely matched field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 45%
Moonshot 34%
Z.ai 33%
OpenAI 30%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
45%
Moonshot
34%
Z.ai
33%
OpenAI
30%
阿里巴巴
30%
谷歌
29%
亚马逊
28%
MiniMax
28%
小米
28%
字节跳动
28%
Meta
27%
英伟达
27%
百度
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Mistral
25%
微软
25%
美团
24%
DeepSeek
23%
Anthropic 45%
Moonshot 34%
Z.ai 33%
OpenAI 30%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$6 交易量
45%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
34%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
33%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
30%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
30%
谷歌
$0 交易量
29%
亚马逊
$39 交易量
28%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
28%
小米
$0 交易量
28%
字节跳动
$20 交易量
28%
Meta
$0 交易量
27%
英伟达
$33 交易量
27%
百度
$0 交易量
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
26%
Mistral
$33 交易量
25%
微软
$33 交易量
25%
美团
$42 交易量
24%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for the leading AI agent by end of August, with Anthropic holding a slim 53% implied edge amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple 49-50% outcomes. Recent model updates have highlighted Anthropic’s strengths in reliable tool use, long-horizon planning, and safety-aligned agent behavior, while OpenAI and others continue rapid iteration on multi-step reasoning and browser or code execution capabilities. Differentiating factors include demonstrated benchmark performance on complex tasks, developer ecosystem adoption, and regulatory scrutiny around autonomous systems. With roughly six weeks remaining, upcoming releases, capability demos, or third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment in this closely matched field.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
交易量
$206结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for the leading AI agent by end of August, with Anthropic holding a slim 53% implied edge amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple 49-50% outcomes. Recent model updates have highlighted Anthropic’s strengths in reliable tool use, long-horizon planning, and safety-aligned agent behavior, while OpenAI and others continue rapid iteration on multi-step reasoning and browser or code execution capabilities. Differentiating factors include demonstrated benchmark performance on complex tasks, developer ecosystem adoption, and regulatory scrutiny around autonomous systems. With roughly six weeks remaining, upcoming releases, capability demos, or third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment in this closely matched field.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$206结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight contest for the leading AI agent by end of August, with Anthropic holding a slim 53% implied edge amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple 49-50% outcomes. Recent model updates have highlighted Anthropic’s strengths in reliable tool use, long-horizon planning, and safety-aligned agent behavior, while OpenAI and others continue rapid iteration on multi-step reasoning and browser or code execution capabilities. Differentiating factors include demonstrated benchmark performance on complex tasks, developer ecosystem adoption, and regulatory scrutiny around autonomous systems. With roughly six weeks remaining, upcoming releases, capability demos, or third-party evaluations could quickly shift sentiment in this closely matched field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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