Traders see a tight race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena lab leaderboard (style control on) by October 31, with no single lab exceeding low- to mid-20s implied odds. Anthropic’s Claude series holds the top spot through consistent frontier releases like Opus 5, while OpenAI and Google occupy the next tier via frequent GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x iterations. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot (Kimi), MiniMax, and Z.ai cluster nearby due to rapid open-weight advances and strong benchmark gains at lower cost, creating a crowded middle pack. Key swing factors include any late-August or September model drops, arena voting shifts on agentic or multimodal tasks, and whether open-source momentum narrows the gap further before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 26%
StepFun 26%
微软 26%
Moonshot 26%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
谷歌
26%
StepFun
26%
微软
26%
Moonshot
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Z.ai
26%
百度
26%
小米
26%
DeepSeek
26%
字节跳动
26%
MiniMax
26%
Thinky
26%
亚马逊
26%
Nvidia
26%
腾讯
26%
OpenAI
25%
美团
25%
Mistral
24%
Anthropic
23%
Meta
23%
阿里巴巴
23%
谷歌 26%
StepFun 26%
微软 26%
Moonshot 26%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
谷歌
$0 交易量
26%
StepFun
$0 交易量
26%
微软
$0 交易量
26%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
26%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
26%
百度
$0 交易量
26%
小米
$0 交易量
26%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
26%
字节跳动
$0 交易量
26%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
26%
Thinky
$0 交易量
26%
亚马逊
$0 交易量
26%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
26%
腾讯
$0 交易量
26%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
25%
美团
$0 交易量
25%
Mistral
$0 交易量
24%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
23%
Meta
$0 交易量
23%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena lab leaderboard (style control on) by October 31, with no single lab exceeding low- to mid-20s implied odds. Anthropic’s Claude series holds the top spot through consistent frontier releases like Opus 5, while OpenAI and Google occupy the next tier via frequent GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x iterations. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot (Kimi), MiniMax, and Z.ai cluster nearby due to rapid open-weight advances and strong benchmark gains at lower cost, creating a crowded middle pack. Key swing factors include any late-August or September model drops, arena voting shifts on agentic or multimodal tasks, and whether open-source momentum narrows the gap further before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena lab leaderboard (style control on) by October 31, with no single lab exceeding low- to mid-20s implied odds. Anthropic’s Claude series holds the top spot through consistent frontier releases like Opus 5, while OpenAI and Google occupy the next tier via frequent GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x iterations. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot (Kimi), MiniMax, and Z.ai cluster nearby due to rapid open-weight advances and strong benchmark gains at lower cost, creating a crowded middle pack. Key swing factors include any late-August or September model drops, arena voting shifts on agentic or multimodal tasks, and whether open-source momentum narrows the gap further before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena lab leaderboard (style control on) by October 31, with no single lab exceeding low- to mid-20s implied odds. Anthropic’s Claude series holds the top spot through consistent frontier releases like Opus 5, while OpenAI and Google occupy the next tier via frequent GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.x iterations. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot (Kimi), MiniMax, and Z.ai cluster nearby due to rapid open-weight advances and strong benchmark gains at lower cost, creating a crowded middle pack. Key swing factors include any late-August or September model drops, arena voting shifts on agentic or multimodal tasks, and whether open-source momentum narrows the gap further before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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