Rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across frontier labs has created a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, with no contender exceeding low-20s implied probability. Mistral edges the field slightly after releasing Vibe Remote Agents for distributed deployment, while OpenAI, xAI, ByteDance, and Meta advance through enhanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and autonomous task execution in models like Codex, Grok agents, and Muse Spark. Anthropic and Google maintain strong positioning via demonstrated computer-use features and Workspace agents, but ongoing benchmarks and internal progress reports prevent consolidation. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and open releases that could shift trader consensus amid fierce competition in workflows and integration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Mistral 22%
SpaceXAI 21%
字节跳动 21%
Meta 20%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Mistral
22%
SpaceXAI
21%
字节跳动
21%
Meta
20%
亚马逊
20%
Moonshot
19%
MiniMax
19%
百度
19%
Z.ai
19%
19%
美团
19%
Anthropic
18%
阿里巴巴
18%
英伟达
17%
微软
17%
OpenAI
16%
小米
16%
DeepSeek
13%
Mistral 22%
SpaceXAI 21%
字节跳动 21%
Meta 20%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Mistral
$20 交易量
22%
SpaceXAI
$20 交易量
21%
字节跳动
$20 交易量
21%
Meta
$20 交易量
20%
亚马逊
$20 交易量
20%
Moonshot
$20 交易量
19%
MiniMax
$20 交易量
19%
百度
$20 交易量
19%
Z.ai
$20 交易量
19%
$20 交易量
19%
美团
$20 交易量
19%
Anthropic
$20 交易量
18%
阿里巴巴
$20 交易量
18%
英伟达
$20 交易量
17%
微软
$20 交易量
17%
OpenAI
$20 交易量
16%
小米
$20 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$20 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across frontier labs has created a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, with no contender exceeding low-20s implied probability. Mistral edges the field slightly after releasing Vibe Remote Agents for distributed deployment, while OpenAI, xAI, ByteDance, and Meta advance through enhanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and autonomous task execution in models like Codex, Grok agents, and Muse Spark. Anthropic and Google maintain strong positioning via demonstrated computer-use features and Workspace agents, but ongoing benchmarks and internal progress reports prevent consolidation. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and open releases that could shift trader consensus amid fierce competition in workflows and integration.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
交易量
$360结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across frontier labs has created a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, with no contender exceeding low-20s implied probability. Mistral edges the field slightly after releasing Vibe Remote Agents for distributed deployment, while OpenAI, xAI, ByteDance, and Meta advance through enhanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and autonomous task execution in models like Codex, Grok agents, and Muse Spark. Anthropic and Google maintain strong positioning via demonstrated computer-use features and Workspace agents, but ongoing benchmarks and internal progress reports prevent consolidation. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and open releases that could shift trader consensus amid fierce competition in workflows and integration.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$360结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across frontier labs has created a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, with no contender exceeding low-20s implied probability. Mistral edges the field slightly after releasing Vibe Remote Agents for distributed deployment, while OpenAI, xAI, ByteDance, and Meta advance through enhanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and autonomous task execution in models like Codex, Grok agents, and Muse Spark. Anthropic and Google maintain strong positioning via demonstrated computer-use features and Workspace agents, but ongoing benchmarks and internal progress reports prevent consolidation. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and open releases that could shift trader consensus amid fierce competition in workflows and integration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题