Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Mythos 5, which top benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and overall intelligence. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain highly competitive on price-to-performance and certain tasks, while Google and xAI continue rapid iteration with recent Gemini and Grok updates. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow frontier gap, where frequent model drops—expected from all major labs through year-end—could shift the #1 position before December 31. Key catalysts include upcoming flagship releases, benchmark updates, and any major capability demonstrations in agentic or multimodal performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$127,532 交易量
2026-12-31
OpenAI
34%
谷歌
20%
阿里巴巴
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
字节跳动
8%
DeepSeek
7%
百度
7%
微软
5%
美团
4%
亚马逊
4%
Mistral
3%
$127,532 交易量
OpenAI
$22,572 交易量
34%
谷歌
$17,193 交易量
20%
阿里巴巴
$3,366 交易量
13%
Meta
$14,909 交易量
13%
xAI
$8,877 交易量
13%
Moonshot
$8,669 交易量
11%
Z.ai
$2,568 交易量
9%
字节跳动
$2,876 交易量
8%
DeepSeek
$20,789 交易量
7%
百度
$1,958 交易量
7%
微软
$5,185 交易量
5%
美团
$3,143 交易量
4%
亚马逊
$5,156 交易量
4%
Mistral
$10,270 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Mythos 5, which top benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and overall intelligence. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain highly competitive on price-to-performance and certain tasks, while Google and xAI continue rapid iteration with recent Gemini and Grok updates. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow frontier gap, where frequent model drops—expected from all major labs through year-end—could shift the #1 position before December 31. Key catalysts include upcoming flagship releases, benchmark updates, and any major capability demonstrations in agentic or multimodal performance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
交易量
$127,532结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Mythos 5, which top benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and overall intelligence. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain highly competitive on price-to-performance and certain tasks, while Google and xAI continue rapid iteration with recent Gemini and Grok updates. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow frontier gap, where frequent model drops—expected from all major labs through year-end—could shift the #1 position before December 31. Key catalysts include upcoming flagship releases, benchmark updates, and any major capability demonstrations in agentic or multimodal performance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$127,532结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads most independent AI leaderboards with its July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Mythos 5, which top benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and overall intelligence. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain highly competitive on price-to-performance and certain tasks, while Google and xAI continue rapid iteration with recent Gemini and Grok updates. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow frontier gap, where frequent model drops—expected from all major labs through year-end—could shift the #1 position before December 31. Key catalysts include upcoming flagship releases, benchmark updates, and any major capability demonstrations in agentic or multimodal performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题