Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于ByteDance 21%
Anthropic 20%
英伟达 18%
Baidu 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
ByteDance
21%
Anthropic
20%
英伟达
18%
Baidu
17%
16%
微软
16%
腾讯
16%
Meta
15%
DeepSeek
14%
SpaceXAI
13%
Xiaomi
13%
Moonshot
13%
Alibaba
11%
OpenAI
9%
Z.ai
9%
Thinky
6%
MiniMax
6%
Meituan
5%
StepFun
5%
Mistral
4%
Amazon
4%
ByteDance 21%
Anthropic 20%
英伟达 18%
Baidu 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
ByteDance
$0 交易量
21%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
20%
英伟达
$0 交易量
18%
Baidu
$0 交易量
17%
$0 交易量
16%
微软
$0 交易量
16%
腾讯
$0 交易量
16%
Meta
$0 交易量
15%
DeepSeek
$33 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$33 交易量
13%
Xiaomi
$33 交易量
13%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
13%
Alibaba
$33 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$33 交易量
9%
Z.ai
$66 交易量
9%
Thinky
$39 交易量
6%
MiniMax
$39 交易量
6%
Meituan
$42 交易量
5%
StepFun
$42 交易量
5%
Mistral
$59 交易量
4%
Amazon
$39 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$492结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$492结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab slot by end-October, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 in July, xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, and Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates keeping benchmarks tight among U.S. leaders while Chinese labs like DeepSeek and ByteDance close performance gaps. Trader consensus at roughly 50% for several frontrunners and sub-25% for names such as Anthropic, Baidu, and Nvidia reflects uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior capabilities in reasoning, agentic workflows, or open-weight scaling before the deadline. Key swing factors include next-quarter releases, talent retention, and regulatory or compute constraints that could shift relative positioning in this fluid landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题