Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of October as highly uncertain, with no dominant frontrunner and Anthropic’s 31.5% implied probability reflecting only a modest edge over DeepSeek and several Chinese labs. Recent releases from DeepSeek, ByteDance, and Tencent have narrowed gaps in multi-step mathematical reasoning benchmarks, highlighting advantages in specialized training data and inference techniques that Western models from OpenAI and Google have not yet matched at similar scale. Competitive dynamics center on chain-of-thought performance, benchmark saturation rates, and rapid iteration cycles, with upcoming model updates before October likely to drive sentiment shifts in this closely contested field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于DeepSeek 20%
字节跳动 14%
Meta 13%
腾讯 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
DeepSeek
20%
字节跳动
14%
Meta
13%
腾讯
13%
微软
11%
百度
9%
Mistral
8%
OpenAI
8%
亚马逊
5%
StepFun
5%
阿里巴巴
5%
MiniMax
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Moonshot
4%
谷歌
3%
小米
2%
Z.ai
1%
英伟达
1%
美团
1%
Anthropic
40%
DeepSeek 20%
字节跳动 14%
Meta 13%
腾讯 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
DeepSeek
$159 交易量
20%
字节跳动
$82 交易量
14%
Meta
$103 交易量
13%
腾讯
$149 交易量
13%
微软
$77 交易量
11%
百度
$77 交易量
9%
Mistral
$127 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$102 交易量
8%
亚马逊
$147 交易量
5%
StepFun
$121 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$93 交易量
5%
MiniMax
$115 交易量
5%
SpaceXAI
$95 交易量
5%
Moonshot
$93 交易量
4%
谷歌
$103 交易量
3%
小米
$206 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$102 交易量
1%
英伟达
$110 交易量
1%
美团
$130 交易量
1%
Anthropic
$138 交易量
40%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of October as highly uncertain, with no dominant frontrunner and Anthropic’s 31.5% implied probability reflecting only a modest edge over DeepSeek and several Chinese labs. Recent releases from DeepSeek, ByteDance, and Tencent have narrowed gaps in multi-step mathematical reasoning benchmarks, highlighting advantages in specialized training data and inference techniques that Western models from OpenAI and Google have not yet matched at similar scale. Competitive dynamics center on chain-of-thought performance, benchmark saturation rates, and rapid iteration cycles, with upcoming model updates before October likely to drive sentiment shifts in this closely contested field.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
交易量
$2,332结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of October as highly uncertain, with no dominant frontrunner and Anthropic’s 31.5% implied probability reflecting only a modest edge over DeepSeek and several Chinese labs. Recent releases from DeepSeek, ByteDance, and Tencent have narrowed gaps in multi-step mathematical reasoning benchmarks, highlighting advantages in specialized training data and inference techniques that Western models from OpenAI and Google have not yet matched at similar scale. Competitive dynamics center on chain-of-thought performance, benchmark saturation rates, and rapid iteration cycles, with upcoming model updates before October likely to drive sentiment shifts in this closely contested field.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$2,332结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of October as highly uncertain, with no dominant frontrunner and Anthropic’s 31.5% implied probability reflecting only a modest edge over DeepSeek and several Chinese labs. Recent releases from DeepSeek, ByteDance, and Tencent have narrowed gaps in multi-step mathematical reasoning benchmarks, highlighting advantages in specialized training data and inference techniques that Western models from OpenAI and Google have not yet matched at similar scale. Competitive dynamics center on chain-of-thought performance, benchmark saturation rates, and rapid iteration cycles, with upcoming model updates before October likely to drive sentiment shifts in this closely contested field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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