**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 47%
Luma AI 43%
OpenAI 43%
Runway 43%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
47%
Luma AI
43%
OpenAI
43%
Runway
43%
Pruna
43%
Kandinsky
43%
字节跳动
43%
KlingAI
42%
MiniMax
42%
腾讯
42%
Meta
42%
SpaceXAI
42%
Genmo AI
42%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
42%
Pixverse
41%
Lightricks
40%
Pika
40%
Google 47%
Luma AI 43%
OpenAI 43%
Runway 43%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
$0 交易量
47%
Luma AI
$0 交易量
43%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
43%
Runway
$0 交易量
43%
Pruna
$0 交易量
43%
Kandinsky
$0 交易量
43%
字节跳动
$0 交易量
43%
KlingAI
$0 交易量
42%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
42%
腾讯
$0 交易量
42%
Meta
$0 交易量
42%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
42%
Genmo AI
$0 交易量
42%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
$0 交易量
42%
Pixverse
$0 交易量
41%
Lightricks
$0 交易量
40%
Pika
$0 交易量
40%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Closely matched market odds around 40-50% across dozens of outcomes reflect the fluid, multi-dimensional race among text-to-video leaders, with no model yet establishing clear dominance across benchmarks for realism, motion control, native audio, duration, and prompt adherence.** ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5, released in July 2026, has set recent SOTA marks for multi-shot narratives, local editing, and up to 30-second 4K clips with multimodal references, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou excels in character consistency and commercial storytelling workflows. Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 and Google’s Veo 3.1 remain strong contenders on quality and polish, whereas OpenAI’s Sora 2 faces discontinuation of its API by late September. Traders are pricing in continued rapid iteration and subjective evaluation criteria through the resolution date, with fresh model updates or benchmark shifts likely to drive near-term volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题