Meta’s strong positioning at 79% implied probability stems from its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, which delivered measurable gains in agentic coding efficiency and tied leading models on Artificial Analysis indices while maintaining broad Llama ecosystem momentum. Recent frontier updates from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), and Google (Gemini 3.8 Flash) have kept the top of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard fluid, but none have displaced Meta from the likely second slot under Style Control adjustments that normalize for response characteristics. With resolution two weeks away, traders are pricing in Meta’s rapid iteration cadence and developer adoption edge over slower-moving or more specialized contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Meta 79%
Google 10%
Anthropic 5.7%
OpenAI 5%
$78,762 交易量
$78,762 交易量
2026-09-30
Meta
79%
10%
Anthropic
6%
OpenAI
5%
Moonshot
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 79%
Google 10%
Anthropic 5.7%
OpenAI 5%
$78,762 交易量
$78,762 交易量
2026-09-30
Meta
$23,830 交易量
79%
$10,930 交易量
10%
Anthropic
$4,066 交易量
6%
OpenAI
$15,941 交易量
5%
Moonshot
$2,097 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,443 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$1,620 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$5,031 交易量
1%
Xiaomi
$1,312 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,593 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,573 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$1,111 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$1,361 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,161 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$645 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$460 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$820 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$665 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$733 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$831 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s strong positioning at 79% implied probability stems from its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, which delivered measurable gains in agentic coding efficiency and tied leading models on Artificial Analysis indices while maintaining broad Llama ecosystem momentum. Recent frontier updates from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), and Google (Gemini 3.8 Flash) have kept the top of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard fluid, but none have displaced Meta from the likely second slot under Style Control adjustments that normalize for response characteristics. With resolution two weeks away, traders are pricing in Meta’s rapid iteration cadence and developer adoption edge over slower-moving or more specialized contenders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$78,762结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s strong positioning at 79% implied probability stems from its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, which delivered measurable gains in agentic coding efficiency and tied leading models on Artificial Analysis indices while maintaining broad Llama ecosystem momentum. Recent frontier updates from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), and Google (Gemini 3.8 Flash) have kept the top of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard fluid, but none have displaced Meta from the likely second slot under Style Control adjustments that normalize for response characteristics. With resolution two weeks away, traders are pricing in Meta’s rapid iteration cadence and developer adoption edge over slower-moving or more specialized contenders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$78,762结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETMeta’s strong positioning at 79% implied probability stems from its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, which delivered measurable gains in agentic coding efficiency and tied leading models on Artificial Analysis indices while maintaining broad Llama ecosystem momentum. Recent frontier updates from OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), and Google (Gemini 3.8 Flash) have kept the top of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard fluid, but none have displaced Meta from the likely second slot under Style Control adjustments that normalize for response characteristics. With resolution two weeks away, traders are pricing in Meta’s rapid iteration cadence and developer adoption edge over slower-moving or more specialized contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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