Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SpaceXAI 30%
小米 21%
英伟达 18%
Anthropic 16%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
SpaceXAI
30%
小米
21%
英伟达
18%
Anthropic
16%
MiniMax
15%
Thinky
15%
美团
15%
Mistral
15%
OpenAI
14%
StepFun
14%
阿里巴巴
14%
谷歌
13%
Z.ai
13%
字节跳动
13%
亚马逊
13%
腾讯
13%
DeepSeek
13%
微软
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
7%
百度
7%
SpaceXAI 30%
小米 21%
英伟达 18%
Anthropic 16%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
SpaceXAI
$37 交易量
30%
小米
$37 交易量
21%
英伟达
$37 交易量
18%
Anthropic
$37 交易量
16%
MiniMax
$37 交易量
15%
Thinky
$37 交易量
15%
美团
$37 交易量
15%
Mistral
$37 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$37 交易量
14%
StepFun
$37 交易量
14%
阿里巴巴
$37 交易量
14%
谷歌
$37 交易量
13%
Z.ai
$37 交易量
13%
字节跳动
$37 交易量
13%
亚马逊
$37 交易量
13%
腾讯
$37 交易量
13%
DeepSeek
$37 交易量
13%
微软
$65 交易量
13%
Meta
$37 交易量
12%
Moonshot
$37 交易量
7%
百度
$37 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$799结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$799结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETTrader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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