Traders view the race for third-best AI agent lab by end of November as tightly contested, with multiple unnamed or emerging labs priced near 50% implied probability alongside Anthropic and Meta at 25%. This pricing reflects intense competition in building reliable agentic systems that combine large language models with robust tool use, planning, and execution across real-world tasks. Differentiators include demonstrated multi-step reasoning benchmarks, developer platform momentum, and integration depth rather than raw model scale alone. Larger labs like OpenAI and Google sit lower around 13%, indicating trader doubts about their near-term agent leadership amid rapid iteration by specialists. New capability releases or third-party evaluations could quickly reshape these odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于英伟达 25%
字节跳动 25%
亚马逊 25%
美团 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
英伟达
25%
字节跳动
25%
亚马逊
25%
美团
14%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Mistral
14%
阿里巴巴
13%
Moonshot
13%
小米
13%
百度
13%
微软
13%
腾讯
13%
谷歌
12%
DeepSeek
12%
Meta
12%
MiniMax
11%
英伟达 25%
字节跳动 25%
亚马逊 25%
美团 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
英伟达
$0 交易量
25%
字节跳动
$0 交易量
25%
亚马逊
$0 交易量
25%
美团
$0 交易量
14%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
14%
Mistral
$0 交易量
14%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
13%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
13%
小米
$0 交易量
13%
百度
$0 交易量
13%
微软
$0 交易量
13%
腾讯
$0 交易量
13%
谷歌
$0 交易量
12%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
12%
Meta
$0 交易量
12%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third-best AI agent lab by end of November as tightly contested, with multiple unnamed or emerging labs priced near 50% implied probability alongside Anthropic and Meta at 25%. This pricing reflects intense competition in building reliable agentic systems that combine large language models with robust tool use, planning, and execution across real-world tasks. Differentiators include demonstrated multi-step reasoning benchmarks, developer platform momentum, and integration depth rather than raw model scale alone. Larger labs like OpenAI and Google sit lower around 13%, indicating trader doubts about their near-term agent leadership amid rapid iteration by specialists. New capability releases or third-party evaluations could quickly reshape these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third-best AI agent lab by end of November as tightly contested, with multiple unnamed or emerging labs priced near 50% implied probability alongside Anthropic and Meta at 25%. This pricing reflects intense competition in building reliable agentic systems that combine large language models with robust tool use, planning, and execution across real-world tasks. Differentiators include demonstrated multi-step reasoning benchmarks, developer platform momentum, and integration depth rather than raw model scale alone. Larger labs like OpenAI and Google sit lower around 13%, indicating trader doubts about their near-term agent leadership amid rapid iteration by specialists. New capability releases or third-party evaluations could quickly reshape these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETTraders view the race for third-best AI agent lab by end of November as tightly contested, with multiple unnamed or emerging labs priced near 50% implied probability alongside Anthropic and Meta at 25%. This pricing reflects intense competition in building reliable agentic systems that combine large language models with robust tool use, planning, and execution across real-world tasks. Differentiators include demonstrated multi-step reasoning benchmarks, developer platform momentum, and integration depth rather than raw model scale alone. Larger labs like OpenAI and Google sit lower around 13%, indicating trader doubts about their near-term agent leadership amid rapid iteration by specialists. New capability releases or third-party evaluations could quickly reshape these odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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