**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.** Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall. The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日上海最低气温？
8月1日上海最低气温？
27°C 93.5%
26°C 3.0%
25°C 3.0%
24°C <1%
最新
$25,648 交易量
最新
$25,648 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
94%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或更高
<1%
27°C 93.5%
26°C 3.0%
25°C 3.0%
24°C <1%
最新
$25,648 交易量
最新
$25,648 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
$355 交易量
<1%
23°C
$379 交易量
<1%
24°C
$5,594 交易量
<1%
25°C
$2,178 交易量
3%
26°C
$3,110 交易量
3%
27°C
$5,621 交易量
94%
28°C
$4,266 交易量
<1%
29°C
$2,621 交易量
<1%
30°C
$500 交易量
<1%
31°C
$570 交易量
<1%
32°C或更高
$453 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.**
Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall.
The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$25,648结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.**
Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall.
The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25,648结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.** Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall. The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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