**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C peak for Incheon on August 2, with 32°C holding the highest implied probability at 43%.** Short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under continued summer high pressure, supporting surface heating to this range amid typical August humidity and light southerly winds. A lingering heatwave advisory across the Seoul-Incheon region, with recent observed highs near 32–33°C, reinforces this clustering, while low precipitation chances limit cooling from clouds or rain. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, though minor model differences in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon mixing could nudge the exact maximum between 31°C and 33°C. No significant frontal passage or typhoon influence is expected before resolution, keeping extreme outcomes (>34°C or <30°C) at low single-digit probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月2日首尔(仁川)气温最高?
32°C 43%
31°C 25%
33°C 25%
34°C 4%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
25%
32°C
43%
33°C
25%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
3%
32°C 43%
31°C 25%
33°C 25%
34°C 4%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
25%
32°C
43%
33°C
25%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C peak for Incheon on August 2, with 32°C holding the highest implied probability at 43%.** Short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under continued summer high pressure, supporting surface heating to this range amid typical August humidity and light southerly winds. A lingering heatwave advisory across the Seoul-Incheon region, with recent observed highs near 32–33°C, reinforces this clustering, while low precipitation chances limit cooling from clouds or rain. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, though minor model differences in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon mixing could nudge the exact maximum between 31°C and 33°C. No significant frontal passage or typhoon influence is expected before resolution, keeping extreme outcomes (>34°C or <30°C) at low single-digit probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题