Recent National Weather Service and private model runs for Dallas on August 25 show highs centered in the low- to mid-100s°F under lingering high pressure, with limited moisture and southwesterly flow supporting modest afternoon heating. A tropical system threat noted in long-range guidance could introduce cloud cover or brief cooling, keeping the most probable range near 102–105°F and explaining the market’s heavy weighting there. Historical late-August baselines for the region average near 95°F, so current conditions reflect an ongoing heat dome with only gradual seasonal moderation. Updated short-range model cycles and any new tropical steering signals expected tomorrow remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.