Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance indicates a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 1, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, light northeast flow, and possible morning cloud cover are limiting afternoon heating and producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. These closely matched outcomes reflect model uncertainty around exact peak temperatures, with resolution depending on official observations from Chicago O’Hare or Midway. Traders are pricing in the reduced heating potential relative to seasonal averages rather than any extreme deviation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥8月1日最高气温？
芝加哥8月1日最高气温？
72-73°F 36%
70-71°F 35%
74-75°F 20%
68-69°F 12%
最新
$25,399 交易量
最新
$25,399 交易量
2026-08-01
63°F或以下
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
35%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或更高
<1%
72-73°F 36%
70-71°F 35%
74-75°F 20%
68-69°F 12%
最新
$25,399 交易量
最新
$25,399 交易量
2026-08-01
63°F或以下
$1,381 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$1,452 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$2,981 交易量
2%
68-69°F
$3,362 交易量
12%
70-71°F
$4,312 交易量
35%
72-73°F
$3,158 交易量
36%
74-75°F
$4,743 交易量
20%
76-77°F
$2,558 交易量
1%
78-79°F
$498 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$458 交易量
<1%
82°F或更高
$498 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance indicates a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 1, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, light northeast flow, and possible morning cloud cover are limiting afternoon heating and producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. These closely matched outcomes reflect model uncertainty around exact peak temperatures, with resolution depending on official observations from Chicago O’Hare or Midway. Traders are pricing in the reduced heating potential relative to seasonal averages rather than any extreme deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$25,399结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance indicates a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 1, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, light northeast flow, and possible morning cloud cover are limiting afternoon heating and producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. These closely matched outcomes reflect model uncertainty around exact peak temperatures, with resolution depending on official observations from Chicago O’Hare or Midway. Traders are pricing in the reduced heating potential relative to seasonal averages rather than any extreme deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25,399结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and private model guidance indicates a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 1, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 72 °F—well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of roughly 84 °F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence, light northeast flow, and possible morning cloud cover are limiting afternoon heating and producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins. These closely matched outcomes reflect model uncertainty around exact peak temperatures, with resolution depending on official observations from Chicago O’Hare or Midway. Traders are pricing in the reduced heating potential relative to seasonal averages rather than any extreme deviation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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