Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 55 knots with improving organization including a closed ring on microwave imagery, faces favorable conditions for intensification as it tracks westward over 28–29°C sea surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance highlights decreasing easterly vertical wind shear and model consensus for rapid strengthening, with most runs projecting hurricane status (74+ knots) within 12–24 hours and further gains to major hurricane intensity. Trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for reaching hurricane strength reflects this consensus while incorporating realistic uncertainty from potential mid-level dry air entrainment and interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could alter shear or track. Updated NHC intensity forecasts and satellite trends will likely drive near-term market adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於熱帶風暴洛厄爾會加強成颶風嗎？
熱帶風暴洛厄爾會加強成颶風嗎？
是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-08
是
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-08
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 55 knots with improving organization including a closed ring on microwave imagery, faces favorable conditions for intensification as it tracks westward over 28–29°C sea surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance highlights decreasing easterly vertical wind shear and model consensus for rapid strengthening, with most runs projecting hurricane status (74+ knots) within 12–24 hours and further gains to major hurricane intensity. Trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for reaching hurricane strength reflects this consensus while incorporating realistic uncertainty from potential mid-level dry air entrainment and interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could alter shear or track. Updated NHC intensity forecasts and satellite trends will likely drive near-term market adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$3,873結束日期
2026-09-09市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 55 knots with improving organization including a closed ring on microwave imagery, faces favorable conditions for intensification as it tracks westward over 28–29°C sea surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance highlights decreasing easterly vertical wind shear and model consensus for rapid strengthening, with most runs projecting hurricane status (74+ knots) within 12–24 hours and further gains to major hurricane intensity. Trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for reaching hurricane strength reflects this consensus while incorporating realistic uncertainty from potential mid-level dry air entrainment and interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could alter shear or track. Updated NHC intensity forecasts and satellite trends will likely drive near-term market adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$3,873結束日期
2026-09-09市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETTropical Storm Lowell, currently at 55 knots with improving organization including a closed ring on microwave imagery, faces favorable conditions for intensification as it tracks westward over 28–29°C sea surface temperatures. National Hurricane Center guidance highlights decreasing easterly vertical wind shear and model consensus for rapid strengthening, with most runs projecting hurricane status (74+ knots) within 12–24 hours and further gains to major hurricane intensity. Trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for reaching hurricane strength reflects this consensus while incorporating realistic uncertainty from potential mid-level dry air entrainment and interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could alter shear or track. Updated NHC intensity forecasts and satellite trends will likely drive near-term market adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions