Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日至8月30日，全球有多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
8月24日至8月30日，全球有多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
0 47%
1 35%
2 16%
3 4.4%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
0
47%
1
35%
2
16%
3
4%
4
2%
5
2%
超過5次
<1%
0 47%
1 35%
2 16%
3 4.4%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
0
$1,117 交易量
47%
1
$367 交易量
35%
2
$27 交易量
16%
3
$388 交易量
4%
4
$77 交易量
2%
5
$248 交易量
2%
超過5次
$449 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
交易量
$2,674結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$2,674結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETGlobal tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions