Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no precursors or heightened activity suggesting an imminent magnitude 8.0+ event through late August, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two megaquakes per year worldwide. Recent 2026 quakes, including the 7.5 off Venezuela and 7.8 in the Philippines, fell short of megaquake thresholds, reinforcing trader views that such extremes remain statistically uncommon in any 30-day window. Model consensus and plate-boundary strain data indicate steady, low-probability conditions absent sudden foreshock sequences or unusual volcanic signals. A cluster of aftershocks or revised fault-slip measurements could theoretically shift odds, though no such indicators appear in current agency reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日前發生超級地震？
8月31日前發生超級地震？
是
最新
最新
2026-08-31
是
最新
最新
2026-08-31
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no precursors or heightened activity suggesting an imminent magnitude 8.0+ event through late August, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two megaquakes per year worldwide. Recent 2026 quakes, including the 7.5 off Venezuela and 7.8 in the Philippines, fell short of megaquake thresholds, reinforcing trader views that such extremes remain statistically uncommon in any 30-day window. Model consensus and plate-boundary strain data indicate steady, low-probability conditions absent sudden foreshock sequences or unusual volcanic signals. A cluster of aftershocks or revised fault-slip measurements could theoretically shift odds, though no such indicators appear in current agency reports.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$11結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no precursors or heightened activity suggesting an imminent magnitude 8.0+ event through late August, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two megaquakes per year worldwide. Recent 2026 quakes, including the 7.5 off Venezuela and 7.8 in the Philippines, fell short of megaquake thresholds, reinforcing trader views that such extremes remain statistically uncommon in any 30-day window. Model consensus and plate-boundary strain data indicate steady, low-probability conditions absent sudden foreshock sequences or unusual volcanic signals. A cluster of aftershocks or revised fault-slip measurements could theoretically shift odds, though no such indicators appear in current agency reports.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$11結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no precursors or heightened activity suggesting an imminent magnitude 8.0+ event through late August, consistent with the historical average of roughly one to two megaquakes per year worldwide. Recent 2026 quakes, including the 7.5 off Venezuela and 7.8 in the Philippines, fell short of megaquake thresholds, reinforcing trader views that such extremes remain statistically uncommon in any 30-day window. Model consensus and plate-boundary strain data indicate steady, low-probability conditions absent sudden foreshock sequences or unusual volcanic signals. A cluster of aftershocks or revised fault-slip measurements could theoretically shift odds, though no such indicators appear in current agency reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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