Trader consensus places the highest implied probabilities on zero or one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring globally during the August 3–9 window, reflecting typical background seismicity rates from long-term USGS data of roughly 140–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events per year. Late July 2026 monitoring shows moderate global activity without notable M6.5+ clusters, aftershock sequences, or triggering conditions along major fault systems such as subduction zones. Short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty, as new USGS or regional network observations could shift probabilities if unusual strain accumulation or swarm activity emerges before the period begins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日至8月9日發生了多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
8月3日至8月9日發生了多少次6.5級或以上的地震？
0 46%
1 31%
2 18%
3 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
0
46%
1
31%
2
18%
3
6%
4
4%
5
3%
>5
3%
0 46%
1 31%
2 18%
3 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
0
$459 交易量
46%
1
$205 交易量
31%
2
$92 交易量
18%
3
$77 交易量
6%
4
$106 交易量
4%
5
$50 交易量
3%
>5
$91 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus places the highest implied probabilities on zero or one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring globally during the August 3–9 window, reflecting typical background seismicity rates from long-term USGS data of roughly 140–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events per year. Late July 2026 monitoring shows moderate global activity without notable M6.5+ clusters, aftershock sequences, or triggering conditions along major fault systems such as subduction zones. Short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty, as new USGS or regional network observations could shift probabilities if unusual strain accumulation or swarm activity emerges before the period begins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
交易量
$1,080結束日期
2026-08-10市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus places the highest implied probabilities on zero or one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring globally during the August 3–9 window, reflecting typical background seismicity rates from long-term USGS data of roughly 140–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events per year. Late July 2026 monitoring shows moderate global activity without notable M6.5+ clusters, aftershock sequences, or triggering conditions along major fault systems such as subduction zones. Short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty, as new USGS or regional network observations could shift probabilities if unusual strain accumulation or swarm activity emerges before the period begins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$1,080結束日期
2026-08-10市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETTrader consensus places the highest implied probabilities on zero or one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring globally during the August 3–9 window, reflecting typical background seismicity rates from long-term USGS data of roughly 140–150 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events per year. Late July 2026 monitoring shows moderate global activity without notable M6.5+ clusters, aftershock sequences, or triggering conditions along major fault systems such as subduction zones. Short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty, as new USGS or regional network observations could shift probabilities if unusual strain accumulation or swarm activity emerges before the period begins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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