NOAA's updated August 2026 outlook maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season driven by moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity. As of mid-August, just three named storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength, well below the 1991–2020 averages. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns further reduce the odds of a Category 4 system (winds ≥130 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) reaching U.S. landfall before 2027, aligning trader consensus with the market-implied 82.5% probability for "No." Updated model runs and September peak-season briefings from the National Hurricane Center remain key monitoring points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
18% 機率
$340,152 交易量
$340,152 交易量
2026-12-30
是
18% 機率
$340,152 交易量
$340,152 交易量
2026-12-30
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA's updated August 2026 outlook maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season driven by moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity. As of mid-August, just three named storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength, well below the 1991–2020 averages. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns further reduce the odds of a Category 4 system (winds ≥130 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) reaching U.S. landfall before 2027, aligning trader consensus with the market-implied 82.5% probability for "No." Updated model runs and September peak-season briefings from the National Hurricane Center remain key monitoring points.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$340,152結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA's updated August 2026 outlook maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season driven by moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity. As of mid-August, just three named storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength, well below the 1991–2020 averages. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns further reduce the odds of a Category 4 system (winds ≥130 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) reaching U.S. landfall before 2027, aligning trader consensus with the market-implied 82.5% probability for "No." Updated model runs and September peak-season briefings from the National Hurricane Center remain key monitoring points.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$340,152結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA's updated August 2026 outlook maintains a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season driven by moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November with only a 5% chance of above-normal activity. As of mid-August, just three named storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength, well below the 1991–2020 averages. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns further reduce the odds of a Category 4 system (winds ≥130 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) reaching U.S. landfall before 2027, aligning trader consensus with the market-implied 82.5% probability for "No." Updated model runs and September peak-season briefings from the National Hurricane Center remain key monitoring points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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