Record summer heat across France, including multiple national temperature highs in June and July plus the hottest June-July period on record per Copernicus data, has driven overwhelming trader conviction toward a yes outcome. Successive heatwaves with peaks above 40°C, red alerts covering dozens of departments, and confirmation that 2026 already surpasses prior benchmarks like 2003 underpin the 94.5% implied probability. Ongoing August conditions and any final-month anomalies remain the main swing factors, though a dramatic late cooling trend would be required to alter the current trajectory.