Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
23% 機率
$240,989 交易量
$240,989 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 機率
$240,989 交易量
$240,989 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$240,989結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$240,989結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions