The Hong Kong Observatory's July 30 seasonal outlook for August–October highlights a higher chance of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, shaped by the strengthening El Niño event expected to reach strong or very strong intensity. This baseline, combined with August's climatological peak in monsoon-driven thunderstorms and typhoon activity, supports market-implied odds favoring totals near or above the typical 400 mm range, with 700 mm+ emerging as the leading outcome due to potential for episodic heavy rain events. Early-month conditions and model consensus on steering patterns add modest upside uncertainty, though El Niño influences often temper extreme wet anomalies relative to La Niña years. Upcoming HKO updates and tropical cyclone monitoring will provide key signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 65%
650-700mm 32%
525-550mm 26%
<425mm 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
<425mm
26%
425-450mm
24%
450-475mm
18%
475-500mm
20%
500-525mm
21%
525-550mm
26%
550-600mm
18%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
32%
700mm+
51%
700mm+ 65%
650-700mm 32%
525-550mm 26%
<425mm 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
<425mm
$87 交易量
26%
425-450mm
$66 交易量
24%
450-475mm
$83 交易量
18%
475-500mm
$66 交易量
20%
500-525mm
$69 交易量
21%
525-550mm
$98 交易量
26%
550-600mm
$80 交易量
18%
600-650mm
$66 交易量
19%
650-700mm
$40 交易量
32%
700mm+
$153 交易量
51%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's July 30 seasonal outlook for August–October highlights a higher chance of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, shaped by the strengthening El Niño event expected to reach strong or very strong intensity. This baseline, combined with August's climatological peak in monsoon-driven thunderstorms and typhoon activity, supports market-implied odds favoring totals near or above the typical 400 mm range, with 700 mm+ emerging as the leading outcome due to potential for episodic heavy rain events. Early-month conditions and model consensus on steering patterns add modest upside uncertainty, though El Niño influences often temper extreme wet anomalies relative to La Niña years. Upcoming HKO updates and tropical cyclone monitoring will provide key signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
交易量
$809結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's July 30 seasonal outlook for August–October highlights a higher chance of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, shaped by the strengthening El Niño event expected to reach strong or very strong intensity. This baseline, combined with August's climatological peak in monsoon-driven thunderstorms and typhoon activity, supports market-implied odds favoring totals near or above the typical 400 mm range, with 700 mm+ emerging as the leading outcome due to potential for episodic heavy rain events. Early-month conditions and model consensus on steering patterns add modest upside uncertainty, though El Niño influences often temper extreme wet anomalies relative to La Niña years. Upcoming HKO updates and tropical cyclone monitoring will provide key signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$809結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory's July 30 seasonal outlook for August–October highlights a higher chance of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, shaped by the strengthening El Niño event expected to reach strong or very strong intensity. This baseline, combined with August's climatological peak in monsoon-driven thunderstorms and typhoon activity, supports market-implied odds favoring totals near or above the typical 400 mm range, with 700 mm+ emerging as the leading outcome due to potential for episodic heavy rain events. Early-month conditions and model consensus on steering patterns add modest upside uncertainty, though El Niño influences often temper extreme wet anomalies relative to La Niña years. Upcoming HKO updates and tropical cyclone monitoring will provide key signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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