NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids large enough to deliver 5 kilotons of impact energy on collision courses through 2026 or beyond, with Sentry and Scout systems continuously updating orbits of detected near-Earth objects. A 5 kt event would require an undetected roughly 5–10 meter stony body, objects that are difficult to spot until days or hours before atmospheric entry yet occur far less frequently than smaller fireballs already tracked in 2026. Recent surges in reported bolides and meteorite falls reflect improved detection rather than elevated risk, while multiple documented close approaches of house- and airplane-sized asteroids have all passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit. Trader consensus therefore reflects the low baseline annual probability tempered by the slim chance of surprise impact from an unmonitored fragment.