Recent Bureau of Reclamation data show Lake Mead at a record-low elevation near 1,040.5 feet in early August 2026, driven by multi-year drought across the Colorado River basin, below-average snowpack, and elevated evaporation from prolonged heat. Reduced releases from Lake Powell to protect its minimum power pool, combined with steady downstream demand, accelerate drawdown. Trader odds cluster evenly because hydrologic models diverge on 2026–2027 inflows, conservation savings, and temperature-driven evaporation rates. Key variables include winter precipitation totals, spring snowmelt volume, and any emergency shortage declarations that could alter release schedules before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於高於1,038英尺 47%
1,033–1,038英尺 47%
1,028–1,033英尺 47%
低於1,028英尺 47%
高於1,038英尺
47%
1,033–1,038英尺
47%
1,028–1,033英尺
47%
低於1,028英尺
47%
高於1,038英尺 47%
1,033–1,038英尺 47%
1,028–1,033英尺 47%
低於1,028英尺 47%
高於1,038英尺
47%
1,033–1,038英尺
47%
1,028–1,033英尺
47%
低於1,028英尺
47%
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
市場開放時間: Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Recent Bureau of Reclamation data show Lake Mead at a record-low elevation near 1,040.5 feet in early August 2026, driven by multi-year drought across the Colorado River basin, below-average snowpack, and elevated evaporation from prolonged heat. Reduced releases from Lake Powell to protect its minimum power pool, combined with steady downstream demand, accelerate drawdown. Trader odds cluster evenly because hydrologic models diverge on 2026–2027 inflows, conservation savings, and temperature-driven evaporation rates. Key variables include winter precipitation totals, spring snowmelt volume, and any emergency shortage declarations that could alter release schedules before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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