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icon for 在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......

在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......

icon for 在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......

在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......

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Polymarket

$4,714 交易量

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icon for 8月30日

8月30日

$1,544 交易量

24%

icon for 10月31日

10月31日

$501 交易量

47%

icon for 12月31日

12月31日

$534 交易量

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) myiasis in livestock is driven by larval infestation of wounds, with females laying eggs that hatch into flesh-eating maggots; the U.S. has maintained eradication since the 1960s via sterile insect technique (SIT) releases along the southern border.** The June 2026 index case in a Zavala County, Texas calf triggered an APHIS/TAHC response with additional confirmations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties through early summer, plus one non-livestock detection in a New Mexico dog near the border. As of mid-August 2026, active cases remain concentrated in Texas livestock with no verified spread to other states in cattle, goats, or sheep per USDA dashboards. Key controls include expanded SIT dispersal, wound treatment protocols, movement restrictions, and port monitoring (e.g., Douglas, AZ reopening August 24 with the nearest active case ~325 miles away). Trader sentiment hinges on containment success versus northward or interstate livestock/wildlife movement during peak fly activity. Upcoming APHIS surveillance updates, any new county-level confirmations, and model runs on fly dispersal or import risk will be primary near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows rapid SIT response can limit outbreaks, but border proximity sustains reintroduction pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$4,714
市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) myiasis in livestock is driven by larval infestation of wounds, with females laying eggs that hatch into flesh-eating maggots; the U.S. has maintained eradication since the 1960s via sterile insect technique (SIT) releases along the southern border.** The June 2026 index case in a Zavala County, Texas calf triggered an APHIS/TAHC response with additional confirmations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties through early summer, plus one non-livestock detection in a New Mexico dog near the border. As of mid-August 2026, active cases remain concentrated in Texas livestock with no verified spread to other states in cattle, goats, or sheep per USDA dashboards. Key controls include expanded SIT dispersal, wound treatment protocols, movement restrictions, and port monitoring (e.g., Douglas, AZ reopening August 24 with the nearest active case ~325 miles away). Trader sentiment hinges on containment success versus northward or interstate livestock/wildlife movement during peak fly activity. Upcoming APHIS surveillance updates, any new county-level confirmations, and model runs on fly dispersal or import risk will be primary near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows rapid SIT response can limit outbreaks, but border proximity sustains reintroduction pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$4,714
市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 51%, followed by "10月31日" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......" is "12月31日" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10月31日" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在德克薩斯州以外的牲畜中確認了美國Screwworm病例......" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.