Below-normal activity expected for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear, underpins the market's strong 88% implied probability against any Category 5 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with only weak early-season storms observed so far. Historically, only four Category 5 systems—Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018)—have struck the U.S. at that intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With the peak season window closing by November and no recent intensification signals, traders see limited scope for the rare alignment of warm sea-surface temperatures, low shear, and precise steering needed for such an event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
12% 機率
$139,425 交易量
$139,425 交易量
2026-12-30
是
12% 機率
$139,425 交易量
$139,425 交易量
2026-12-30
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity expected for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear, underpins the market's strong 88% implied probability against any Category 5 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with only weak early-season storms observed so far. Historically, only four Category 5 systems—Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018)—have struck the U.S. at that intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With the peak season window closing by November and no recent intensification signals, traders see limited scope for the rare alignment of warm sea-surface temperatures, low shear, and precise steering needed for such an event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$139,425結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity expected for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear, underpins the market's strong 88% implied probability against any Category 5 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with only weak early-season storms observed so far. Historically, only four Category 5 systems—Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018)—have struck the U.S. at that intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With the peak season window closing by November and no recent intensification signals, traders see limited scope for the rare alignment of warm sea-surface temperatures, low shear, and precise steering needed for such an event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$139,425結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal activity expected for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear, underpins the market's strong 88% implied probability against any Category 5 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with only weak early-season storms observed so far. Historically, only four Category 5 systems—Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018)—have struck the U.S. at that intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With the peak season window closing by November and no recent intensification signals, traders see limited scope for the rare alignment of warm sea-surface temperatures, low shear, and precise steering needed for such an event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions